The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

[Inconquerable]

Okay hi hello I am caught up and I've been working on THIS post ever since I posted my counterclaim so it might seem a little weird, I missed some stuff but then I got an error message, caught up since my counterclaim, and am now adding things in.

Firstly, nope, still no mafia offer.

Secondly, again, why is MY role that's always claimed? >_> Because yeah, I'm Szeth. I haven't night killed because I haven't wanted to go for it unless I was 100% sure - I almost killed Lotha last night, fun fact, but I chickened out. I also caught Incon's weirdness when she mentioned Day 3, which is partly why I was pressing suspicion then, but as time went by and she didn't push it anymore I relaxed somewhat.

Thirdly, Dissident: Thanks Inc, for gathering up his posts! Those, combined with what I've seen, are something I'm not liking. He's either noncommittal or just restating facts for the first few days - Maintaining a presence without actually doing anything. Now he's being REALLY hesitant to claim to save his life - This is telling me he doesn't want a counterclaim situation or there's really something he doesn't want to tell. Could this be elaborate theatre? I don't know. I'm VERY known for missing obvious things to those who know me, but I don't think Diss's role is as obvious as he thinks if he's a townie. I don't like this, not at all, although he does have a valid point - It would have been a lot safer to just wait and take Cam as my nightkill but if we're all role claiming and I refused to do so or claimed someone else's role it would have looked just as bad.

Honestly right now I know Zaz/Cam is up to no good, I'd be down to lynch him this moment. My next pick is Lotha (for reasons already explained in my reads) and Dissident. DEADLINE VOTE: ZAZ/CAM.

I didn't immediately vote him because I knew I was gonna be writing this post and didn't wanna just throw that out there. XD

Gotta go eat now!

So couple of questions, why did you decide against killing Lotha in night two? And with your three person team, we're basically looking at a traitor situation since Micky was Nale. Who do you think out of those three is the traitor? Could you point out to a few posts that might help everyone else come to the same conclusion? I'd also like an updated reads list if possible.

[Silver]

Yeah, sorry it took me so long to hop on and then get my thoughts together. XD I look forward to seeing what you come up with.

[zazisaspaz]

Least concerning right now
Ubik, Lotha, Inky
Julianna
Cameron, Dissident
Silver
Most concerning right now

[Inconquerable]

Least concerning right now
Ubik, Lotha, Inky
Julianna
Cameron, Dissident
Silver
Most concerning right now

Thank you! Are the one-liners in order as well or is it an even playing field for those on the same line?

---------------------------

Timo post! I’m using this post to go through his suspicions, so I’m going to really dig into his reads lists and posts casting suspicion on others.

So first we have his initial reads list from day two. Keep in mind this is all before Micky claimed Shallan and was then outed by Ubik as Nale. He has Silver and Dissident at the bottom of his list (ignoring Micky since we already know his alignment). His reasons for Silver are basically low posting and thinking I looked guilt in day one, whereas with Dissident, he saw a contradiction when Dissident brought up a reservations about not killing on day one and then going along with the pack on the no kill.

He spent a good chunk of the first half of day two hashing out his day one plan with Lotha to try to come to an understanding. He also spoke with Micky some and raised suspicions on Summer (who is mechanically cleared, I’m just putting everything on the table here), though he wasn’t sure that she was the right choice. He agreed with my take that there didn’t seem to be a tonal difference in Dissident’s posts between days one and two. He liked Silver’s reads list but didn’t agree with Silver’s take on Lotha.

Second reads list. Ignoring Micky again, he has Silver at the bottom, but it was a low posting thing. Cam moved down a lot based on low posting and him potentially jumping on a bandwagon. Interesting how both people claiming Szeth are at the bottom here. Dissident moved up a lot based on his claim of rejecting the mafia offer in night one.

And that was basically it. He left us a lot of good information (thank you!), I tried to just focus on the people he suspected. The only confirmed dead townie of our group said that Silver was the most suspicious, followed by Cam, both of whom have claimed the same role. I think we can clear up in this day phase which is actually Szeth, pending Ubik's investigation results.

[Lotha]

As far as I see, depending on Ubik's investigation results, the real Szeth could kill the fake Szeth in n3, we can hang the other suspect today, and I'll shoot whoever's left.

[Ubik]

Okay. So the person I investigated last night was zaz, and he showed up as Shallan. I thought it was a bit of a bust of an investigation at first, but it seems to have actually been okay. Getting any townie role in the investigation is masked with uncertainty due to Shallan's role - the result could've meant a few things: zaz was indeed Shallan; zaz wasn't Shallan, but the real Shallan cast an illusion over him to look like Shallan; or zaz is Re-Shephir and took on the illusion, either deliberately or because the real Shallan cast an illusion over another player to look like Shallan.

One thing that couldn't be true with this result, however, is that Inc is Shallan and cast an illusion over herself to look like Kaladin.

So, I have to conclude that Inc is lying and we should vote her out today. DEADLINE VOTE: INCONQUERABLE

zaz himself is confusing me somewhat. If he'd claimed Shallan, I'd have been happy he was town, but going with Szeth means there's a lot of uncertainty there. So, I have a plan, and it's pretty similar to Lotha's above. It's straightforward enough, but given the number of possible outcomes, you'll have to know what to look for on day 4 to clean up the last remaining mafia(s).

Jasnah - if Lotha is Jasnah, she should target Dissident tonight. If Lotha is lying about her role, then the real Jasnah should target her.

Szeth - Silver should target zaz, or zaz should target Silver, depending on who's telling the truth.

The advantage of this plan is - if either vigilante has betrayed us, they won't be able to use their kill on an extra townie. So be on the lookout in Andy's write-up for whether Jasnah goes out to kill anyone. Szeth has to make a kill on night three, but if they're mafia it'll take the place of the mafia night kill. So if there's one night kill and Szeth does it: Szeth is mafia.

There's a possibility Dissident is Lift. In this case, Lotha's kill won't work, and Julianna will have been lying, so kill her on day 4.

It's impossible for Szeth and Jasnah's kills to go through (in addition to the mafia night kill) if their targets are both town, the numbers don't add up. So a mafia should either get killed or a townie should avoid death, and that should give the town the numbers advantage going into the next day, and you should hopefully be able to deduce who the remaining partner(s) were.

Hope the end of that wasn't too confusing.

My current view on the players:

Town - Summer
Lean town - Lotha, Silver
Neutral - Julianna
Lean mafia - zaz, Dissident
Mafia - Inc

[Lotha]

Okay what the fuck!

Editing after I had some time to think:

If zaz was really Shallan (or if anyone other than Inc is really Shallan), why wouldn't he counter-claim Inc and vote for her on the spot? The only reason I could see is if he were Shallan-turned-mafia.

We already know Inc has falsely claimed a vigilante, but what I don't understand, in the above scenario ^, if we assume that Inc was mafia all along and zaz is the traitor (which had to have been the order of things in order for him to come up as Shallan in Wit's investigation), why would they switch claims? Why not leave Inc claiming a vigi role and let zaz claim his own role?

In a different scenario, why would Inc lie about whom she Shallan-ed? That would be not only a false claim first, but also a misleading explanation, which she had to know could land her in trouble with town.

Ubik was I right about you? Did you turncoat and intentionally bus Micky so you could pull this off? Because this story makes zero sense.

Dissident, I am really gonna need a role from you.

[Ubik]

Was more or less my reaction first when she claimed Shallan, then when zaz didn't counter. I've re-read Shallan and Re-Shephir's roles like 20 times now to make sure I'm not missing anything... but nope. zaz may or may not be lying, if not then there's another Shallan that's not telling the truth, but Inc is certainly lying.

[Inconquerable]

Huh, so you really did it. I really didn’t want to look into Lotha’s fringe theory on you, but then this quote popped into my head.

I also haven't received one, and I think you'd believe me when I say that I wouldn't have accepted if they had.

It thought it was an odd thing to just say out of the blue at first, because of course I’m not just going to believe you without looking into it. But you were and had been my top town read for quite some time at this point, so I didn’t think too hard on it. But now it makes sense. You were… testing the waters. Surely the traitor wouldn’t draw attention to themselves in this way? Unless that was precisely the thing they did, with the goal of faking people out.

So I went and did my due diligence like I did with Dissident, and there is a difference in your posting. I urge everybody else to do their homework here and look at Ubik’s posts. I’ll link them for convenience sake.

DAY ONE
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=40#p214117
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=60#p214133
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=60#p214140
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=60#p214148
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=80#p214159
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=80#p214161

So. Freakin. Townie. Immediately he’s trying to solve me, which, granted, needed to be done anyway, but you can feel that it’s genuine. Because it was. Bringing up the point that I didn’t have time to talk to the mafia team before I claimed vigilante is what sealed it for me. You were looking at everything you could to figure this out. Pure town Ubik.

DAY TWO
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=120#p214228
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=140#p214230
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=140#p214233
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=140#p214248
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=160#p214257
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=160#p214266
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=160#p214274
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=180#p214289
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=180#p214295
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=200#p214305
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=200#p214312
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=200#p214316
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=220#p214319
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=220#p214321
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=220#p214333
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=240#p214345
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=240#p214346

I’ll give you that there isn’t a huge difference here, but it’s there. Your first post in the thread, you’re offer hunting. Now I understand the motivation behind it from a townie perspective, and your answer later makes sense, but more on this later. Suddenly though, and this is something that Timo raised as well, you are concerned about how you look. Typically, I don’t find this indicative of your alignment, but there’s none of that concern in the first day. In day two though, you immediately ask if anybody was sent an offer, and your next post is clarifying “this is not a trap!”. Then (except for one post answering a question of mine) you go quiet and don’t say anything again until you’ve gotten nearly everyone else’s answers, in which you explain your plan from a townie perspective. Wonderful! But you seemed to have missed that Dissident didn’t answer your question, and he is the one who claimed that he got the offer overnight. You don’t acknowledge it when it happens (which is… fine, you could have been away from the thread), but when you see that I’ve done the work on it, you agree you don’t find a difference in tone, which is what I concluded as well. Again, more on this later.

Now, later on Micky claims Shallan. You ask him questions that he doesn’t answer. Obviously you can’t control him not answering, unless you specifically tell him to not answer. That’s conjecture but… it could have happened. Then, a day and a half into the day phase, after letting us spin our wheels for 36 hours (which is another pattern), you claim Wit and a guilty result on Micky. This is where the bus starts. You were safe to bus Micky because Summer had claimed at this point, and he was being looked at by more than a few people. And I asked you why Micky, and you came up with a great answer. But realistically if you’re a cop, why would you not try to solve the biggest question mark in day one? No Micky didn’t look good coming out of it, but why not look into Lotha, who had been playing much more aggressively in response to my claim than she has been in some time? Why not investigate me to clear my role? Why not investigate Timo who was pushing that we kill somebody on day one? My theory is that you did, but the investigation didn’t matter because you had switched to the mafia side. Then you basically bury yourself in mech talk for the rest of the day.

What stands out to me maybe more than anything is THIS post. You were wary of Dissident here. Why did you not investigate him last night? My theory… you didn’t need to.

DAY THREE
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=240#p214357
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=240#p214359
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=240#p214361
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=240#p214363
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=260#p214372
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=260#p214375
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=260#p214379
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=260#p214388
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=280#p214414
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=280#p214420
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4232&start=300#p214428

This is where the big difference is, you just flat out refuse to listen to anybody who may have an opinion different than yours. I had reservations about a mass role claim and started to slowly roll out my vigilante claim strategy, and your immediate response was that you didn’t like my reservations or the idea that what I had done wasn’t exactly as it seemed. Then when I claimed Shallan (the result of your apparent investigation last night), everything was fine. Dissident doesn’t want to claim, it immediately must be bad for him (though I now see this as theatre). Then all of your posts after this are thanking people, and clarifying if they’ve gotten an offer from the mafia, until you decide that you’re going to let us waste time in the thread before revealing your investigation results. This actually really put you in a bad spot for me, because you had some sort of a result (we thought), and you let us again spin our wheels wasting time for half the day. There is very little work that was done yesterday (outside of like… me, Lotha, and Juliana having small conversations) because you had a game full of people waiting for you to reveal your investigation. Well I’m calling BS on it because of…

1. This post, in which my explanation “makes sense from a Shallan perspective.”
2. This post, in which you shade confirmed Shallan (from your perspective), Cam based on Micky’s neutral read on him.

My question to the rest of the thread is, and I’ll put it in bold so that hopefully everybody sees it in this wall, did anybody have any indication that Timo might have been the doctor?

My answer to this is no, I thought he was Szeth. But the doctor was killed last night. How did mafia get the doctor? Because they have a cop on their side. And now we have this…

Updated reads list, from most likely town to least likely town:

1. Ubik (his claim: Wit)
He helped us nail Nale. (hehe.) The only way I could see him as a non-town now would be if he switched sides during Night 1 and agreed with Micky and the rest of the mafia to bus Micky. I wouldn't put this past Ubik's intelligence because that would be a brilliant move, but The Dissident did claim he received an offer to join the mafia on night 1 and rejected it, which, if true, means the above is unlikely to have happened.

I thought about this for a long time, but I think it makes complete sense. The reason Dissident can claim that he received an offer is because he’s mafia, so they coordinated it that way to save Ubik so that they could bus Micky for the town credibility. It is a brilliant move, but in my opinion, it backfired. In my view, Dissident was hinting at being Lift in his second post yesterday but refused to say it to avoid getting into a counterclaim issue with Julianna like we have with Cam and Silver.

So my current theory is this: the mafia team in this game is Micky/Dissident, and one more player (one of the two Szeth claims), and Ubik is the traitor. I just don’t know which of the two to vote for, I could vote for Ubik for being the traitor, or I could vote for Dissident for being mafia outright, I’m personally fine either way.

[Ubik]

Okay, Inc. You've done a legit amazing job this game, can't fault it. I thought you might say you were lying about who you'd cast the illusion on, and that would've at least been possible for me mechanically, though I'd have still gone ahead with this vote on you because you'd lied (twice). This at least removes all doubt from me.

If people really think I'm a traitor cop, who decided to bus my teammate who had an instant kill role, AFTER Dalinar had revealed her role and made herself a target in the night, and then come in today saying that one of the mafia was one of the most town-read people playing, rather than someone going under the radar, I don't know what to say to you.

[Lotha]

So you were recruited during Night 2, then.

Is that possible? Inc, go dig for me Nobody said they got an offer from the mafia today, did they?

[Inconquerable]

Okay, Inc. You've done a legit amazing job this game, can't fault it. I thought you might say you were lying about who you'd cast the illusion on, and that would've at least been possible for me mechanically, though I'd have still gone ahead with this vote on you because you'd lied (twice). This at least removes all doubt from me.

If people really think I'm a traitor cop, who decided to bus my teammate who had an instant kill role, AFTER Dalinar had revealed her role and made herself a target in the night, and then come in today saying that one of the mafia was one of the most town-read people playing, rather than someone going under the radar, I don't know what to say to you.

Good to know you wouldn't have listened to anything I said anyway. Par for the course for day three.

Of course as the traitor cop you would come in claiming that I was mafia, for exactly the reason you said, I'm one of the most town read people playing. I'm more of a threat to you than someone under the radar is. The Micky stuff to me was all about town cred. I imagine you would have had this response ready to defend why you wouldn't have killed Micky who had the guaranteed kill. But what you did, more importantly than sacrifice the Nale kill, was take away Summer's Dalinar abilities. You orchestrated that at the end of day two, because at that point, you were the confirmed cop. You didn't need the vigilante kill... which actually makes a question pop into my head...

@ANDY: If the entire mafia team dies, does the traitor still continue playing as mafia or do they lose? I know we've played it before where the traitor loses when the real team loses, so just want to clarify. This could also be part of the strategy, Ubik plays the deep confirmed cop and skates through to the end.

[Inconquerable]

So you were recruited during Night 2, then.

Is that possible? Inc, go dig for me Nobody said they got an offer from the mafia today, did they?

Nobody has, the only person who hasn't answered is Dissident, ironically.

[Ubik]

Okay what the fuck!

Editing after I had some time to think:

If zaz was really Shallan (or if anyone other than Inc is really Shallan), why wouldn't he counter-claim Inc and vote for her on the spot? The only reason I could see is if he were Shallan-turned-mafia.

We already know Inc has falsely claimed a vigilante, but what I don't understand, in the above scenario ^, if we assume that Inc was mafia all along and zaz is the traitor (which had to have been the order of things in order for him to come up as Shallan in Wit's investigation), why would they switch claims? Why not leave Inc claiming a vigi role and let zaz claim his own role?

In a different scenario, why would Inc lie about whom she Shallan-ed? That would be not only a false claim first, but also a misleading explanation, which she had to know could land her in trouble with town.

Ubik was I right about you? Did you turncoat and intentionally bus Micky so you could pull this off? Because this story makes zero sense.

Dissident, I am really gonna need a role from you.

On zaz, I have no idea. That's why I spent most of the day running through possibilities in my head as to what could've happened. One theory was that he was worried he'd not come out well against Inc in a face-off. Another is there was a real Shallan that cast an illusion on someone else as Shallan, and he appeared that way because he's Re-Shephir. Or that the real Shallan cast it over him anyway, and he's really Szeth. Have to wait and see what he says. As far as I know, the real Shallan is not a traitor.

[Lotha]

Well, unless Dissident is the real Shallan, I really don't see how your story checks out.

[Ubik]

Okay, so I'm taking that to mean either you're not the real Jasnah, in which case the real one should be able to speak out, or you're the traitor, in which case you can't make a kill, and means Szeth and Lift are also okay.

[Lotha]

No, that means I'm thinking things through since obviously I have no way of telling whether you're lying or not unless I consider all possible outcomes.

I'm gonna have to wait and see what Cam and Dissident have to add to this turn of events before I cast my vote.

Also really curious what Julianna and Silver think.

Summer, I never thought I'd say this, but YOU'RE THE ONLY ONE I CAN TRUST NOW

[Lotha]

What I got from Dissident's post in which he refused to claim was that he was hinting at being the real Szeth ("vigi should stay hidden"). So he'd vote out one fake claim (Silver) and shoot another (zaz). (Presumably.) Else, Dissident, if you don't want to claim, you can clarify why you're voting Silver over Cam, since they claimed the same role.

And I don't see why Cam would fake claim at this point, no matter how concerned he might've been with looking vs Inconq.

[Ubik]

No, that means I'm thinking things through since obviously I have no way of telling whether you're lying or not unless I consider all possible outcomes.

I'm gonna have to wait and see what Cam and Dissident have to add to this turn of events before I cast my vote.

Also really curious what Julianna and Silver think.

Summer, I never thought I'd say this, but YOU'RE THE ONLY ONE I CAN TRUST NOW

This is more reasonable. I can understand why Inc coming up mafia makes people raise their eyebrows, but... do people really think I'd have invited this if I was mafia with a night kill to use on her instead? Seriously. You said I was smart yesterday, this is not a smart move as mafia, just like bussing my insta-kill teammate wouldn't be. But as cop, it's literally the only way I can guarantee a mafia day kill.

[UhohitsJulianna]

No, that means I'm thinking things through since obviously I have no way of telling whether you're lying or not unless I consider all possible outcomes.

I'm gonna have to wait and see what Cam and Dissident have to add to this turn of events before I cast my vote.

Also really curious what Julianna and Silver think.

Summer, I never thought I'd say this, but YOU'RE THE ONLY ONE I CAN TRUST NOW

SO in my initial list you'll see Ubik was right there with Micky for me:
[quote ="UhohitsJulianna]
6. Micky. I think the questions and statements asked at this time hasn't really proven to be one way or another, but I just haven't made up my mind on what the play is here. So I'm just going to keep ya here in the middle for the time being.

7. Ubik. I feel the same way about Ubik as Micky. For me their slots could be interchangeable. Both have provided very logical statements. Ubik has started trying to give us more to think about but this has given me the "mafia trying to gauge townies thoughts" vibe. Although logical and I agree with their posts- the timing and question about the mafia invite was pretty strategic. It just raised my suspicions a bit more as the mafia player trying to gauge the room if you will.
[/quote]

Ubik and Timo both came out the gate trying to consolidate everyone's thoughts. For whatever reason I trusted Timo, but did not trust Ubik.
Once Ubik made the cop claim and proved it with the Micky vote I figured I should try to trust him as he's continued playing the same game I just misread him at first, but I also saw it as a great move for Mafia. Claim a role that would be suicide to anyone who counter claims while outing a teammate to gain trust with the group. I was honestly reading Timo as the cop so when he was dead it made me wonder if the mafia thought the same thing?
When we all started to claim I had honestly expected a second cop to pop up- since one hasn't I'm forced to either believe Ubik is a traitor or the real deal.

Concerning Inc- I expected the initial claim to be a lie so the reveal that she's Shallan doesn't really shock me. I'm still not sure on the overall strategy she had with it? I might've missed the explanation, but Inc if you would care to share now that it appears to have been cracked open. What was the point of claiming a role such as Szeth on day one knowing that eventually the truth would come out like this and the mafia could use that sowed doubt to turn the group against you?

Zaz- I don't understand why you would be Shallan and claim Szeth? The crappy part about this is the truth to his claim will decide the truth on Inc.

I think I'd like to hear more from Zaz and Inc.
Depending on what they have to say and their feelings on the matter will in return help me make up my mind about Ubik and I think I'd be able to make a better vote from there, but at this time I'm not feeling so great about our cop.