You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia
Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia
That is fair but it’s the best idea I’ve got.
anguyen92 wrote:Oh well. Deal with it.
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: Goes without saying but I said it anyway.
So you'll case him the next day, when you said earlier that if the town gets it wrong here they're heading for a draw?Inconquerable wrote:Well we know he's not willing to because he's concerned that he'll be called on it. Except he's given himself an out too. But I um... ok. Let's just say... I see.Andy92 wrote:Whether or not Ubik is willing to vote for Silver is pretty important...but your vote has to remain active.Inconquerable wrote:I mean if it's not obvious that Ubik is my alternate choice at this point I don't know what to tell you. =P
Convince me on Silver though. We can't use the mechanical stuff that I came up with yesterday, it's too ambiguous and up for interpretation. Her thoughts post wasn't great, but she doesn't look worse than Summer has to this point.
Like the only confirmed mafia we know of is Timo right? Who looks like they could be teamed with him? Ubik fits perfectly to me. Summer is also feasible. Silver is a wildcard and could probably fit, but to just base that on a lack of posts is... not ideal.
DEADLINE VOTE: SILVER
Probably goes without saying that if this backfires I'm likely casing you in day four.
Nice theatre, guys.
For all of the hope that it brings...
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: This game. Ugh.
...Yes. Because we would have gotten it wrong and the best thing we can do at that point is go for the draw instead losing outright. And I've re-evaluated him many times and still thought he feels townie. Him pushing me to keep the vote on Silver means one of two things.Ubik wrote:So you'll case him the next day, when you said earlier that if the town gets it wrong here they're heading for a draw?
Nice theatre, guys.
1. He's setting Silver up for a mis-kill, which is easy because she hasn't posted all that much. Big point against Andy.
2. Another option that I'm not willing to divulge yet that I'm putting more stock into, based on my read on Andy.
I'm very sorry that I can't explain this point better.
And it's not like this is new from me? I re-evaluate my reads after every flip, good or bad. I think I've made that pretty clear.
Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia
Okay I'm not gonna reply in a quote because your formatting shames mine, so I'll just do it in sections and hope that it's clear.
-- Timo as doc --
I agree that this part wild and complicated! We have different ways of processing information. I'm sorry if you don't like mine, but it is what it is. If I see a lot of discussion ongoing on a subject where I'm not directly involved, I'll probably just read it unless I notice something specific. I won't add to the pile, it gets messy and confuses things, particularly on day 1. Timo's, to me, was much more straightforward in how to respond. At Micky's claim, I made it clear I would wait for Timo's response, which I did. At Timo's response, which he made in the European morning and I was the first to see it, I made it clear I didn't believe it, but was willing to wait and see whether anything corroborated him. zaz did not. Silver did not. Your conversation with him did not. I didn't post much again on it because I wasn't learning anything more, until Andy made it clear that I hadn't said anything and it made him think I might have been protecting him (???), to which I gave my view.
One thing that I've been thinking on though, and that's Andy's role in it. You remember the quote we both mentioned as leaning towards him being innocent? That if he was mafia, he'd have just killed him? As you said a lot regarding me recently - in isolation, yeah. Fits okay. But now consider what Timo said - not only that Timo was the doctor, but that he thought zaz was the Hound. Think about that for a minute. Do you think, now we know that Timo was mafia, Timo was letting on more than he meant to, here? Do you think that, maybe, the mafia were actually pretty afraid zaz WAS the Hound? Given zaz had drawn attention to it, it makes you think, right? After the event for us, maybe, but for two extremely crafty mafia players? So Timo gets caught, and the obvious response is the cop. But he doesn't do that, even though as you yourself say, it might've had a better chance. Again, why? Just to be creative? Or was he actually trying to test out that zaz really was the doctor? zaz keeps to his story, and dies that night. Huh. Consider also that there's a jailer (and remember at the beginning of day 2, Andy says straight away that there's a Ramsay around. No mention of the High Sparrow. Now think about Timo's response and wonder if he wasn't trying to clean up Andy's slip.) Conclusion - the argument that Andy would've just killed the doctor on the quiet is no longer particularly compelling, because there was a jailer that could keep the doctor powerless, and a chance that the mafia would suffer if they got it wrong. NOW it makes sense to out him. Agree?
Nitpicky - okay, this seems by the by now anyway. Early on I found it strange, but more's happened since.
On not voting Timo - that's fair enough. I hope you realise why it's weirding me out that people are suddenly not suspicious of you despite this happening, though.
-- Hypothetical Timo --
Okay here's the part in question:
"If Timo is town, zaz and Micky are almost certainly mafia and we go after them. If he's mafia, we get one of the mafia and build from there."
If. If Timo is town. That is a hypothetical premise that Timo shows up as town when we kill him. We then go after the two proven liars in Micky and zaz. If he turns up mafia, we've got a mafia. That's the entirety of my point. That Timo, who is very smart as you said, mentioned this as well is basically meaningless. As is the fact that Andy did. We're all saying something that's logical if a certain even happens. That event didn't happen.
-- Jailing Micky or zaz --
Okay, this hopefully isn't going to be as terrible as the stuff in the last game.
Mafia have two choices - kill zaz and jail Micky, or jail zaz and kill Micky.
Kill zaz and jail Micky - if you unjail zaz, they kill zaz and Micky gets jailed. If you unjail Micky, they kill zaz but Micky investigates.
Jail zaz and kill Micky - if you unjail zaz, he saves Micky who investigates and no-one dies, Micky investigates. If you unjail Micky, Micky dies.
Killing zaz has a 100% chance of a kill (assuming no external forces that we don't know about) and 50% chance of stopping Micky.
Killing Micky has a 50% chance of a kill and a 50% chance of stopping Micky.
The mafia, having lost a member, will go for the definite kill. No?
-- Timo as doc --
I agree that this part wild and complicated! We have different ways of processing information. I'm sorry if you don't like mine, but it is what it is. If I see a lot of discussion ongoing on a subject where I'm not directly involved, I'll probably just read it unless I notice something specific. I won't add to the pile, it gets messy and confuses things, particularly on day 1. Timo's, to me, was much more straightforward in how to respond. At Micky's claim, I made it clear I would wait for Timo's response, which I did. At Timo's response, which he made in the European morning and I was the first to see it, I made it clear I didn't believe it, but was willing to wait and see whether anything corroborated him. zaz did not. Silver did not. Your conversation with him did not. I didn't post much again on it because I wasn't learning anything more, until Andy made it clear that I hadn't said anything and it made him think I might have been protecting him (???), to which I gave my view.
One thing that I've been thinking on though, and that's Andy's role in it. You remember the quote we both mentioned as leaning towards him being innocent? That if he was mafia, he'd have just killed him? As you said a lot regarding me recently - in isolation, yeah. Fits okay. But now consider what Timo said - not only that Timo was the doctor, but that he thought zaz was the Hound. Think about that for a minute. Do you think, now we know that Timo was mafia, Timo was letting on more than he meant to, here? Do you think that, maybe, the mafia were actually pretty afraid zaz WAS the Hound? Given zaz had drawn attention to it, it makes you think, right? After the event for us, maybe, but for two extremely crafty mafia players? So Timo gets caught, and the obvious response is the cop. But he doesn't do that, even though as you yourself say, it might've had a better chance. Again, why? Just to be creative? Or was he actually trying to test out that zaz really was the doctor? zaz keeps to his story, and dies that night. Huh. Consider also that there's a jailer (and remember at the beginning of day 2, Andy says straight away that there's a Ramsay around. No mention of the High Sparrow. Now think about Timo's response and wonder if he wasn't trying to clean up Andy's slip.) Conclusion - the argument that Andy would've just killed the doctor on the quiet is no longer particularly compelling, because there was a jailer that could keep the doctor powerless, and a chance that the mafia would suffer if they got it wrong. NOW it makes sense to out him. Agree?
Nitpicky - okay, this seems by the by now anyway. Early on I found it strange, but more's happened since.
On not voting Timo - that's fair enough. I hope you realise why it's weirding me out that people are suddenly not suspicious of you despite this happening, though.
-- Hypothetical Timo --
Okay here's the part in question:
"If Timo is town, zaz and Micky are almost certainly mafia and we go after them. If he's mafia, we get one of the mafia and build from there."
If. If Timo is town. That is a hypothetical premise that Timo shows up as town when we kill him. We then go after the two proven liars in Micky and zaz. If he turns up mafia, we've got a mafia. That's the entirety of my point. That Timo, who is very smart as you said, mentioned this as well is basically meaningless. As is the fact that Andy did. We're all saying something that's logical if a certain even happens. That event didn't happen.
-- Jailing Micky or zaz --
Okay, this hopefully isn't going to be as terrible as the stuff in the last game.
Mafia have two choices - kill zaz and jail Micky, or jail zaz and kill Micky.
Kill zaz and jail Micky - if you unjail zaz, they kill zaz and Micky gets jailed. If you unjail Micky, they kill zaz but Micky investigates.
Jail zaz and kill Micky - if you unjail zaz, he saves Micky who investigates and no-one dies, Micky investigates. If you unjail Micky, Micky dies.
Killing zaz has a 100% chance of a kill (assuming no external forces that we don't know about) and 50% chance of stopping Micky.
Killing Micky has a 50% chance of a kill and a 50% chance of stopping Micky.
The mafia, having lost a member, will go for the definite kill. No?
For all of the hope that it brings...
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: Set on Silver.
Ok no, feeling REALLY good about Silver being the choice today anyway. Because…
Silver's post in which she tells us that she caught up to page 15.
Dissident's update saying that Cam was killed and innocent… on pace 15.
Now a list of posts mentioning that Cam has died (or some variation thereof) between page 16 and where she adds Cam to her thoughts post:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=280#p213799
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=300#p213827
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=320#p213847
And, her thoughts post. 10:50PM EST.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=360#p213894
And finally, the addendum where she “just realized” she forgot Cam. 10:51PM EST.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=360#p213895
I’ve never personally seen this in a game, but I’ve seen it referred to as a “derpclear”. There’s a possibility that she’s just a lost townie re: not knowing Cam is dead. Sure. But she’s said that she has read up to page 15 in the first post where Dissident posted about Cam’s death. She’s read posts since that have mentioned it. But suddenly now she’s forgotten to add him to her living players thoughts? No, sorry, not on board.
EDIT: Will respond to you shortly, Ubik. =)
Silver's post in which she tells us that she caught up to page 15.
Dissident's update saying that Cam was killed and innocent… on pace 15.
Now a list of posts mentioning that Cam has died (or some variation thereof) between page 16 and where she adds Cam to her thoughts post:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=280#p213799
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=300#p213827
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=320#p213847
And, her thoughts post. 10:50PM EST.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=360#p213894
And finally, the addendum where she “just realized” she forgot Cam. 10:51PM EST.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=360#p213895
I’ve never personally seen this in a game, but I’ve seen it referred to as a “derpclear”. There’s a possibility that she’s just a lost townie re: not knowing Cam is dead. Sure. But she’s said that she has read up to page 15 in the first post where Dissident posted about Cam’s death. She’s read posts since that have mentioned it. But suddenly now she’s forgotten to add him to her living players thoughts? No, sorry, not on board.
EDIT: Will respond to you shortly, Ubik. =)
Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia
Stop talking about me dying. I’m super bummed that I’m gonna be killed in the night phase
Thanks Andy!
Re: Have a good sleep!
*Awkward cough* Riiiiiight. I knew that. Totally. Deeeefinitely. Errhem.Inconquerable wrote:Um. So who wants to break the news to Silver on this? =PSilver wrote:Yeah of course!
In no particular order:
Summer: I mentioned early on before I went MIA that I was going to be keeping an eye on her, and I really, really don't like how much she flip flopped around in Day 3. It seemed.... Chaotic. And we all know how chaos is a maf's best friend!
Andy: Very straightforward, very blunt, I'm really not sure where I'd put him. Really pushing his own town standing. Hmmmm.
Ubik: I wasn't really seeing the mafia connections until y'all pointed them out - I don't know if that's me being oblivious or reading too much at once or me getting slightly prejudiced.
Incon: I still think the role claiming thing is weird but not condemning. Still gonna be keeping an eye on her, as much as I like how much she's trying to solve.
Micky: Imma be honest nothing of Micky's sticks out for me? Like I can't remember anything pushing me either way. Role claiming is BOLD. And he was right on Timo! So I'm gonna go ahead and say townie.
That's all I have time for right now (My bed is not just calling my name, it is SCREAMING it) but I'll be here all day tomorrow!!
I JUST REALIZED I FORGOT THE REAL ZAZ.
He's.... Fine to me. Like Micky, nothing is standing out. Imma say fine.
Glad you'll be around tomorrow because I definitely want to talk about this! I'm going to ask some questions now, answer them when you're back on.
1. So hypothetically if you have to make a choice right now about who dies, is it Summer? Could you build a case on her?
2. Can you explain the Ubik take here? Do you agree with my case since I brought up the points? I think I'm misunderstanding this part of the post.
3. If I simplify this, would you say your list looks like this:
TOWN
Micky
NEUTRAL (some order of the following)
Andy
Ubik
Inc
MAFIA
Summer
Anyway, on to answering the questions.
1: Yes, definitely Summer. I play a lot of mafia based on feel and tone and she kept flip flopping all over the place a few day phases ago. She could NOT make up her mind how she felt about you (Although I get that. You've consistently been hard to pin down. XD) I would post examples, but I'm having trouble finding them. Once I do, though, I'll post 'em.
2: I do agree that Ubik looks suspicious. I'm not sure if I'm finding him that way because I keep going back through those posts y'all point out with a suspicious lens, but you're not wrong - It doesn't look great pointed out like that. Kinda making me wonder if it's being cherrypicked but I'm gonna toss Ubik into the "probably mafia but neutral"
3: Yeah that looks good. I would switch you and Andy, though - Poor wording on my part. Andy's been hard pushing his own town standing and that always makes me raise my eyebrows.
Right, about that. I was trying to visualize the people in the game in my head as I was writing the post instead of actually looking to see who's playing. XD I'm TERRIBLE at names. If you recall, last game I didn't even realize there was two Zazes XD To differentiate them in my head, I've been calling them Zaz and Summer. Not Cam. I don't think I've ever referred to the CamZaz as Cam. So, to see all y'all talking about CAM'S death, and not ZAZ'S...... You get where I'm coming from? Also I caught up on six pages stuffed FULL of stuff in one rushed sitting before going straight to bed right after Dissident announced Timo's daykill, I woke up coming in knowing that MIA players are usually looked at it in a suspicious light - Forgive me for noting that an innocent had died and not bothering to register the username before rushing on to the rest of the game.Inconquerable wrote:Ok no, feeling REALLY good about Silver being the choice today anyway. Because…
Silver's post in which she tells us that she caught up to page 15.
Dissident's update saying that Cam was killed and innocent… on pace 15.
Now a list of posts mentioning that Cam has died (or some variation thereof) between page 16 and where she adds Cam to her thoughts post:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=280#p213799
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=300#p213827
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=320#p213847
And, her thoughts post. 10:50PM EST.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=360#p213894
And finally, the addendum where she “just realized” she forgot Cam. 10:51PM EST.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4211&start=360#p213895
I’ve never personally seen this in a game, but I’ve seen it referred to as a “derpclear”. There’s a possibility that she’s just a lost townie re: not knowing Cam is dead. Sure. But she’s said that she has read up to page 15 in the first post where Dissident posted about Cam’s death. She’s read posts since that have mentioned it. But suddenly now she’s forgotten to add him to her living players thoughts? No, sorry, not on board.
EDIT: Will respond to you shortly, Ubik. =)
After I posted my initial reads post, I realized there was probably a list of players on the first page so I zoomed there to make sure I didn't leave anyone out, saw Zaz, and went "OH NOES HANG ON"
-
- On The Rail
- Posts: 1555
- Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 1:17 am
Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia
hahahaha all good, definitely just me being an annoying little sister screwing up usernames here
If there was anything important to read since I last posted, someone let me know in the SparkNotes version
If there was anything important to read since I last posted, someone let me know in the SparkNotes version
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: I do like your formatting!
Ok Ubik first, Silver second!
So the Andy stuff. This is a spicy take. My answer to this might be a little jumbled, I apologize for that. I'll try to keep it in sequence. I had to go look up the mechanics of the Hound because I didn't think it could be that scary to mafia, but yeah if they night kill the Hound it's pretty bad. I still maintain that Timo claimed doctor to cause confusion. For people not taking Micky's guilty result at face value, this raised a lot more questions than if he had just claimed cop. I think the Ramsay/High Sparrow stuff is easy enough to explain away. So somebody claims doctor in day one (messy as it was), a town jailer jailing the doctor claim is just bad play. And I don't remember if... anybody besides me was really giving Cam the side eye about it? So a townie jailed our doctor, which is bad, or I'm the High Sparrow and I did it because I was suspicious of him, which is also bad. So I see where he made the assumption of a mafia jailer.
I'll probably need to go over this take a few more times because I don't know where I land on it. Would be good to get some more takes on it as well. The big thing for me is that I don't solely town read him for that one post. So even if you explain away that post, there are a lot of other things that would need to be explained away. But the crux of your argument here is this:
1. Mafia Andy outs Cam thinking he's the Hound (which we also have to take mafia Timo at his word that this was even a concern).
2. Mafia jails Cam so he can't protect anybody in night one.
3. Mafia Andy says Ramsay must be in the game.
4. Micky claims a guilty result on Timo, Timo claims doctor to confirm Cam's role.
I think it's entirely possible... but you also have to consider Cam as a player himself. He won't admit this, but he's a threat to the mafia. Period. Like Lotha right? I imagine that's probably why she died in night one. Had Cam not done the doctor stuff on day one, he feasibly could have fit into that "take out the big threat night kill" position (as he did in Survivor Mafia... where Andy was mafia coincidentally). I won't rule this out entirely as a possibility.
So ok, I mean maybe we're beating this with a hammer, but I see two entirely different ways of processing information from you though. Maybe this is my big issue with it. So you wait a long time to address Cam right? But with Timo it's immediate, it's just right there almost right after. I know timezones and all that (I'm not taking that into consideration because it's crappy to use that against somebody and I wouldn't, especially since I've had trouble with Dissident being PST, and that's only three hours behind me). I don't think it would have been as big a thing for me if there was consistency there. So my thinking (and we're obviously not going to agree on this) is that Timo saw the guilty result from Micky and told his mafia partners in the QT to vote him out because he was boned anyway. I'm sure there was discussion about how to proceed to try to save him and whatever in there too, but I think the big thing in that QT for the second half of day two was "if this goes down, vote me out." Yes there's also vote mechanics stuff involved but I misunderstood how it all worked, I'm sure others did as well.Ubik wrote:Okay I'm not gonna reply in a quote because your formatting shames mine, so I'll just do it in sections and hope that it's clear.
-- Timo as doc --
I agree that this part wild and complicated! We have different ways of processing information. I'm sorry if you don't like mine, but it is what it is. If I see a lot of discussion ongoing on a subject where I'm not directly involved, I'll probably just read it unless I notice something specific. I won't add to the pile, it gets messy and confuses things, particularly on day 1. Timo's, to me, was much more straightforward in how to respond. At Micky's claim, I made it clear I would wait for Timo's response, which I did. At Timo's response, which he made in the European morning and I was the first to see it, I made it clear I didn't believe it, but was willing to wait and see whether anything corroborated him. zaz did not. Silver did not. Your conversation with him did not. I didn't post much again on it because I wasn't learning anything more, until Andy made it clear that I hadn't said anything and it made him think I might have been protecting him (???), to which I gave my view.
One thing that I've been thinking on though, and that's Andy's role in it. You remember the quote we both mentioned as leaning towards him being innocent? That if he was mafia, he'd have just killed him? As you said a lot regarding me recently - in isolation, yeah. Fits okay. But now consider what Timo said - not only that Timo was the doctor, but that he thought zaz was the Hound. Think about that for a minute. Do you think, now we know that Timo was mafia, Timo was letting on more than he meant to, here? Do you think that, maybe, the mafia were actually pretty afraid zaz WAS the Hound? Given zaz had drawn attention to it, it makes you think, right? After the event for us, maybe, but for two extremely crafty mafia players? So Timo gets caught, and the obvious response is the cop. But he doesn't do that, even though as you yourself say, it might've had a better chance. Again, why? Just to be creative? Or was he actually trying to test out that zaz really was the doctor? zaz keeps to his story, and dies that night. Huh. Consider also that there's a jailer (and remember at the beginning of day 2, Andy says straight away that there's a Ramsay around. No mention of the High Sparrow. Now think about Timo's response and wonder if he wasn't trying to clean up Andy's slip.) Conclusion - the argument that Andy would've just killed the doctor on the quiet is no longer particularly compelling, because there was a jailer that could keep the doctor powerless, and a chance that the mafia would suffer if they got it wrong. NOW it makes sense to out him. Agree?
So the Andy stuff. This is a spicy take. My answer to this might be a little jumbled, I apologize for that. I'll try to keep it in sequence. I had to go look up the mechanics of the Hound because I didn't think it could be that scary to mafia, but yeah if they night kill the Hound it's pretty bad. I still maintain that Timo claimed doctor to cause confusion. For people not taking Micky's guilty result at face value, this raised a lot more questions than if he had just claimed cop. I think the Ramsay/High Sparrow stuff is easy enough to explain away. So somebody claims doctor in day one (messy as it was), a town jailer jailing the doctor claim is just bad play. And I don't remember if... anybody besides me was really giving Cam the side eye about it? So a townie jailed our doctor, which is bad, or I'm the High Sparrow and I did it because I was suspicious of him, which is also bad. So I see where he made the assumption of a mafia jailer.
I'll probably need to go over this take a few more times because I don't know where I land on it. Would be good to get some more takes on it as well. The big thing for me is that I don't solely town read him for that one post. So even if you explain away that post, there are a lot of other things that would need to be explained away. But the crux of your argument here is this:
1. Mafia Andy outs Cam thinking he's the Hound (which we also have to take mafia Timo at his word that this was even a concern).
2. Mafia jails Cam so he can't protect anybody in night one.
3. Mafia Andy says Ramsay must be in the game.
4. Micky claims a guilty result on Timo, Timo claims doctor to confirm Cam's role.
I think it's entirely possible... but you also have to consider Cam as a player himself. He won't admit this, but he's a threat to the mafia. Period. Like Lotha right? I imagine that's probably why she died in night one. Had Cam not done the doctor stuff on day one, he feasibly could have fit into that "take out the big threat night kill" position (as he did in Survivor Mafia... where Andy was mafia coincidentally). I won't rule this out entirely as a possibility.
Yes and no. I think a big part of it is probably because I outed my role and tried to solve Silver's role even though she wasn't around for all of day two and most of day one. I think that might have gone a long way with people. Others would have to touch on this though.Ubik wrote:Nitpicky - okay, this seems by the by now anyway. Early on I found it strange, but more's happened since.
On not voting Timo - that's fair enough. I hope you realise why it's weirding me out that people are suddenly not suspicious of you despite this happening, though.
Ohhhh ok I think I was confused on where this fit into what we were talking about, but I see now. I also thought you had mistyped and meant "hypothetically mafia cleared." This part of my case was far from the most convincing bit anyway, it was kind of a snarky thing to start it off with. Though there were others like Andy and Summer (kind of, I'm reading into her posts a bit here) who didn't buy Cam and Micky as a team. I think largely Andy agreed with my point that they couldn't be a team based on the weird day one voting situation, and Summer wouldn't have bought Cam as anything other than what he said he was at that point regardless of what had happened.Ubik wrote:-- Hypothetical Timo --
Okay here's the part in question:
"If Timo is town, zaz and Micky are almost certainly mafia and we go after them. If he's mafia, we get one of the mafia and build from there."
If. If Timo is town. That is a hypothetical premise that Timo shows up as town when we kill him. We then go after the two proven liars in Micky and zaz. If he turns up mafia, we've got a mafia. That's the entirety of my point. That Timo, who is very smart as you said, mentioned this as well is basically meaningless. As is the fact that Andy did. We're all saying something that's logical if a certain even happens. That event didn't happen.
Soooo... your point here is that I made the wrong decision between the two? There was also a strong chance that isn't accounted for here that they kill me, which of the three options, I thought was the best result for the town. The doctor is saved and can protect the cop because Samwell can de-jail the doctor, and they can kill Samwell. Then in night three they can just kill the doctor anyway. It feels like it was just an order of operations thing to me. I also want to point out again that my role doesn't block kills. So no matter who I de-jail, one of the three of us probably dies. They chose Cam, that was always the risk whether I de-jailed him or not. I chose Cam because I wanted him to be able to protect Micky, the only way that happens is if mafia puts Cam in jail, and I de-jail him. De-jailing Micky outright maybe would have been a better move, but it's not the move I made and I can't lie and say that I did.Ubik wrote:-- Jailing Micky or zaz --
Okay, this hopefully isn't going to be as terrible as the stuff in the last game.
Mafia have two choices - kill zaz and jail Micky, or jail zaz and kill Micky.
Kill zaz and jail Micky - if you unjail zaz, they kill zaz and Micky gets jailed. If you unjail Micky, they kill zaz but Micky investigates.
Jail zaz and kill Micky - if you unjail zaz, he saves Micky who investigates and no-one dies, Micky investigates. If you unjail Micky, Micky dies.
Killing zaz has a 100% chance of a kill (assuming no external forces that we don't know about) and 50% chance of stopping Micky.
Killing Micky has a 50% chance of a kill and a 50% chance of stopping Micky.
The mafia, having lost a member, will go for the definite kill. No?
Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia
Inc. Your last argument against Silver at least made sense, even if it was just your word against hers. This now feels like a complete excuse to vote for someone that you've repeatedly labelled an easy mafia target throughout this game. And on the word of Andy, who has been mentioning her as his target from day one (his first deadline vote).
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
For all of the hope that it brings...
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: Ugh. GAME.
1. I don't actually need you to, unless you really want to build a case here that we can use in day four, that's up to you. I basically got what I wanted out of this, and it confirms that I really don't think you and her could be a team at this stage. I thought so earlier as well, but it's nice to have some confirmation on that. I figure you flipping mafia here pretty well lock clears her town.Silver wrote:*Awkward cough* Riiiiiight. I knew that. Totally. Deeeefinitely. Errhem.
Anyway, on to answering the questions.
1: Yes, definitely Summer. I play a lot of mafia based on feel and tone and she kept flip flopping all over the place a few day phases ago. She could NOT make up her mind how she felt about you (Although I get that. You've consistently been hard to pin down. XD) I would post examples, but I'm having trouble finding them. Once I do, though, I'll post 'em.
2: I do agree that Ubik looks suspicious. I'm not sure if I'm finding him that way because I keep going back through those posts y'all point out with a suspicious lens, but you're not wrong - It doesn't look great pointed out like that. Kinda making me wonder if it's being cherrypicked but I'm gonna toss Ubik into the "probably mafia but neutral"
3: Yeah that looks good. I would switch you and Andy, though - Poor wording on my part. Andy's been hard pushing his own town standing and that always makes me raise my eyebrows.
2. What do you think about Ubik's tone in this game? And how would you compare it to the last game where he was a townie?
3. Noted thank you!
I actually like... fully buy this. I probably shouldn't, and maybe I'm giving you a pass here, but I buy it, especially with this Cam/zaz stuff.Silver wrote:Right, about that. I was trying to visualize the people in the game in my head as I was writing the post instead of actually looking to see who's playing. XD I'm TERRIBLE at names. If you recall, last game I didn't even realize there was two Zazes XD To differentiate them in my head, I've been calling them Zaz and Summer. Not Cam. I don't think I've ever referred to the CamZaz as Cam. So, to see all y'all talking about CAM'S death, and not ZAZ'S...... You get where I'm coming from? Also I caught up on six pages stuffed FULL of stuff in one rushed sitting before going straight to bed right after Dissident announced Timo's daykill, I woke up coming in knowing that MIA players are usually looked at it in a suspicious light - Forgive me for noting that an innocent had died and not bothering to register the username before rushing on to the rest of the game.
After I posted my initial reads post, I realized there was probably a list of players on the first page so I zoomed there to make sure I didn't leave anyone out, saw Zaz, and went "OH NOES HANG ON"
What I think is really weird about this post is the bolded part though. Like is this rushed off their feet townie, or mafia who doesn't care which innocent player dies at night?
I'd also like to know what you think about you having four votes since last night, which is enough to send in the day kill? You haven't addressed that at all which is... I don't know at this point.
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: Don't use it against me that I haven't seen Hamilton please!
Silver is a very easy mis-kill option in a day phase, 100%. Even now. But I've talked myself into believing something a little weird that I can't explain here at this point. It could be really bad, and I am totally willing to accept the blame for it if Andy is leading me down the wrong path, but I'm going with my gut on this. I also do think that she could be lying about receiving the notification in her QT. I know it's not guaranteed that she even got one based on what Dissident told me, but his original message to me leads me to believe that she would have gotten something. Something doesn't jive here, and I have to go with what I see in front of me.Ubik wrote:Inc. Your last argument against Silver at least made sense, even if it was just your word against hers. This now feels like a complete excuse to vote for someone that you've repeatedly labelled an easy mafia target throughout this game. And on the word of Andy, who has been mentioning her as his target from day one (his first deadline vote).
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
You're trying to get me to Hamilton clear you now?!
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: God the amount of mech talk I've been doing. =#
Actually I see what you're doing here, sneaky but I admire it. If Summer and/or Micky switches to Andy (who you will have a much easier time trying to convince people to vote for than me considering... it's Andy), the majority is gone and we end up with a no kill. Or both switch, Silver jumps on, and Andy's eliminated instead.Ubik wrote:Inc. Your last argument against Silver at least made sense, even if it was just your word against hers. This now feels like a complete excuse to vote for someone that you've repeatedly labelled an easy mafia target throughout this game. And on the word of Andy, who has been mentioning her as his target from day one (his first deadline vote).
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
Trying to start a separate wagon on somebody who gets auto-suspicion to mess up the vote counts, and in a possible attempt to save your partner. Very clever.
Re: Tea break.
Start a vote for Summer if you want, at least she's been in your suspicions for a while. I won't join that one either. I don't believe it's possible to have cleared Andy to any extent let alone the amount you claim given all we now know, and he's been trying to get bandwagons started on Silver since the start. He's provided no evidence, but now you're going with the idea that you've started believing something weird that you can't explain, but will take the blame for if you're wrong and get the mafia into a good position... And you think I'm the one doing the stretch mafia play.Inconquerable wrote:Actually I see what you're doing here, sneaky but I admire it. If Summer and/or Micky switches to Andy (who you will have a much easier time trying to convince people to vote for than me considering... it's Andy), the majority is gone and we end up with a no kill. Or both switch, Silver jumps on, and Andy's eliminated instead.Ubik wrote:Inc. Your last argument against Silver at least made sense, even if it was just your word against hers. This now feels like a complete excuse to vote for someone that you've repeatedly labelled an easy mafia target throughout this game. And on the word of Andy, who has been mentioning her as his target from day one (his first deadline vote).
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
Trying to start a separate wagon on somebody who gets auto-suspicion to mess up the vote counts, and in a possible attempt to save your partner. Very clever.
For all of the hope that it brings...
Chaos...is a ladder.
I’m really confident in my idea now after seeing Ubik vote for me.
Just gotta wait about 6 more hours.
Just gotta wait about 6 more hours.
anguyen92 wrote:Oh well. Deal with it.
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: Decaf?!
I don't want to vote for Summer right now? I don't even know where this came from? I've also just potentially solved her, so really confused there. That's totally fine if you don't see the difference between his play in Survivor and here, but I do. Also "given all we know now" feels a little overly confident that you've found something that may or may not exist?Ubik wrote:Start a vote for Summer if you want, at least she's been in your suspicions for a while. I won't join that one either. I don't believe it's possible to have cleared Andy to any extent let alone the amount you claim given all we now know, and he's been trying to get bandwagons started on Silver since the start. He's provided no evidence, but now you're going with the idea that you've started believing something weird that you can't explain, but will take the blame for if you're wrong and get the mafia into a good position... And you think I'm the one doing the stretch mafia play.Inconquerable wrote:Actually I see what you're doing here, sneaky but I admire it. If Summer and/or Micky switches to Andy (who you will have a much easier time trying to convince people to vote for than me considering... it's Andy), the majority is gone and we end up with a no kill. Or both switch, Silver jumps on, and Andy's eliminated instead.Ubik wrote:Inc. Your last argument against Silver at least made sense, even if it was just your word against hers. This now feels like a complete excuse to vote for someone that you've repeatedly labelled an easy mafia target throughout this game. And on the word of Andy, who has been mentioning her as his target from day one (his first deadline vote).
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
Trying to start a separate wagon on somebody who gets auto-suspicion to mess up the vote counts, and in a possible attempt to save your partner. Very clever.
I've been plenty open in this game, but sometimes I have to keep things to myself. You can read into that whatever you want. But you voting for Andy over me feels like a huge mafia agenda, because it's easier to convince people to go in his direction than mine.
Re: Think so...
It came from you having her in your mafia column half the game and complaining when people mentioned Silver Sometimes you really do protest too much. I didn't even mention Survivor, either? Confused me now. You don't think Timo's mafiosity affects things? To me what he said matters a great deal.Inconquerable wrote:I don't want to vote for Summer right now? I don't even know where this came from? I've also just potentially solved her, so really confused there. That's totally fine if you don't see the difference between his play in Survivor and here, but I do. Also "given all we know now" feels a little overly confident that you've found something that may or may not exist?Ubik wrote:Start a vote for Summer if you want, at least she's been in your suspicions for a while. I won't join that one either. I don't believe it's possible to have cleared Andy to any extent let alone the amount you claim given all we now know, and he's been trying to get bandwagons started on Silver since the start. He's provided no evidence, but now you're going with the idea that you've started believing something weird that you can't explain, but will take the blame for if you're wrong and get the mafia into a good position... And you think I'm the one doing the stretch mafia play.Inconquerable wrote:Actually I see what you're doing here, sneaky but I admire it. If Summer and/or Micky switches to Andy (who you will have a much easier time trying to convince people to vote for than me considering... it's Andy), the majority is gone and we end up with a no kill. Or both switch, Silver jumps on, and Andy's eliminated instead.Ubik wrote:Inc. Your last argument against Silver at least made sense, even if it was just your word against hers. This now feels like a complete excuse to vote for someone that you've repeatedly labelled an easy mafia target throughout this game. And on the word of Andy, who has been mentioning her as his target from day one (his first deadline vote).
Anyway, my vote's going to Andy. Today's basically destroyed all the confidence I'd built up in him, and the outing of zaz as doc now makes complete sense. zaz said we should be looking at Inc and Andy, and he was right. Micky and Summer - I'm not sure you're ready to vote for Inc, and I understand. It's possible I'm overreacting to her piling in on me before hearing from Micky, and her not trying to unjail Micky overnight, but it feels right to me. I felt her argument against me was weak. Not sure if you can get on board with Andy either, but it's where I'm at.
DEADLINE VOTE: ANDY
Now I'm gonna watch Hamilton.
Trying to start a separate wagon on somebody who gets auto-suspicion to mess up the vote counts, and in a possible attempt to save your partner. Very clever.
I've been plenty open in this game, but sometimes I have to keep things to myself. You can read into that whatever you want. But you voting for Andy over me feels like a huge mafia agenda, because it's easier to convince people to go in his direction than mine.
As to your bottom bit... it's more just seeing that people weren't willing to vote for my main mafia suspicion. Maybe they'll vote for the one who looks pretty well like the partner. Aim of the game to get the people you think are mafia out, right? Summer already has! She thinks I'm on a team with Andy, this'll be a good way to disprove that. Micky would have to trust Andy quite a lot to go through with it, so hopefully Andy hasn't done anything to damage Micky's trust in him lately.
For all of the hope that it brings...
- Inconquerable
- Rise Today
- Posts: 3917
- Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:21 pm
- Location: Shady Oak Dr.
Re: Uh oh, you better double check!
No, I mean you telling me to start a vote for Summer, I don't know where that came from. I have a case on Silver that developed over the course of this day phase, I don't know why you're telling me to now go for Summer? And again, I feel like I've solved her. Which I've mentioned a couple of times now. I didn't say that you mentioned Survivor, I'm saying that his play is far different in that game (where he was mafia) than it is in this game (which helps me with my town read on him). And I've said already, directly to you in fact, Timo's flip is what changed my reads list so drastically, and what led me to you.Ubik wrote:It came from you having her in your mafia column half the game and complaining when people mentioned Silver Sometimes you really do protest too much. I didn't even mention Survivor, either? Confused me now. You don't think Timo's mafiosity affects things? To me what he said matters a great deal.
As to your bottom bit... it's more just seeing that people weren't willing to vote for my main mafia suspicion. Maybe they'll vote for the one who looks pretty well like the partner. Aim of the game to get the people you think are mafia out, right? Summer already has! She thinks I'm on a team with Andy, this'll be a good way to disprove that. Micky would have to trust Andy quite a lot to go through with it, so hopefully Andy hasn't done anything to damage Micky's trust in him lately.
I can't speak for Summer, but it looks to me based on her vote that her opinion has changed. I'm not going to speculate on that. Micky seems to have made his own decision as well. I do question why you're now putting yourself out there like this even though you're not in immediate danger. Feels like your partner is on her way out and you're trying to get the majority to swing the other way to save her so the town side can't actually win the game. Or you're trying to cause confusion so we end up with a no kill, also preventing townies from winning.