The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

[zazisaspaz]

Fair enough, I’ve been a stinky leader this go around, but if my fellow knights really want to kill off a mafia member today, overthrowing your “leader” is not the way to go.
Where’s my niece at? She should be able to vouch for me.

But also, I haven’t given you a good reason to vote for anyone else because I’ve became a jaded mafia player who can no longer read people, so do whatever feels good to you.

[Inconquerable]

Thanks, Lotha! Appreciate the response.

I'm bad at multiquoting so I'm just numbering the points I'm responding to here, added them to yours as well for ease.

1. Just to answer the last part first, the order was concrete in that the higher ones I had as likelier town, but obviously the gaps between could vary a lot. For instance, I didn't have much of a gap between Summer and Lotha, but there was a big one up to Timo and a bigger one up to you. It's not concrete in terms of being fixed. Summer going for Timo is less than ideal as I'm happy with him as town right now (though Lotha also had him at the bottom of her list.) I'd be interesting to hear more from Summer still, though, for instance what her thoughts on Micky and the Dissident are.

As to Timo/Lotha, honestly I didn't like Timo's plan because it needed a counterclaim to work, and that was unlikely to come, meaning we'd out you for nothing. So I agree with Lotha on the substance of that. But I still liked Timo coming up with it, I don't think he does that as mafia. It reminded me a lot of Purgatory where he and I argued on a plan. So basically yes, I can see them both being town and crossing swords. I also can't rule out that one is mafia.

2. Okay, Summer and Silver. I've just gone back and checked and I think I'm right in saying Silver has made one post during day 1. Now I know from being mafia teammates with her that she doesn't use this as a tactic to avoid detection, she's actually just busy a lot of the time like Micky. However, it's not giving me much to go on. And even though I've said it's unlikely she'd be non-town again... as zaz and yourself said, I can't really base anything concrete on that. My main feeling was that I'm not ready to go there yet. I wouldn't blame a vigilante going there on night 3. So Summer, although the calculation may have changed somewhat since my post, was probably more what you'd say was a tone read. Honestly, her first post really rubbed me the wrong way when I read it, the whole "sure I think she's innocent but maybe we should kill her anyway" thing. But, echoing what she said later on, I can see that much more in the line of a jaded play than a mafia one. I also liked what she said about people acting confused about your play so far, because to me, anyone that had read your posts and the roles should have been able to come up with a reason why you might've done it as a townie.

3. Noted, and yeah on the process of elimination vote thing, that's a good way of putting it.

4. That's fair, but having the info out there still gives the cop a chance to check and clear someone for themselves or find a mafia. Whether they share that is up to them, but it gives them the choice.

My takeaway so far is that it unfortunately became a bit mired in suspicion (I mean, understandably in this game), whereas in an ideal world everyone would've given an answer quickly as Timo did. I still think no-one saying they received one, when I'm pretty sure everyone will have read my question, suggests something, but I'd still like everyone to state one way or the other if possible. I also haven't received one, and I think you'd believe me when I say that I wouldn't have accepted if they had.

So efficient, so [Ubik].

1. Gotcha. Concrete was probably not the right word to use but you seem to know what I meant, basically is it specifically ordered. And of course, subject to change and all that. I co-sign needing to hear more thoughts from Summer. I think it's... probably too early to be having paranoid thoughts about the people I consider town, but it's going to nag at me for a bit so I'm happy to be talking about it at least. For today at least, I would throw Lotha, Timo, and yourself in the not voting for bin, unless something really ridiculous happens. I'd probably put Julianna in there as well at this stage.

2. Great point about Silver, to her credit she is typically just busy and has not historically used that as a tactic. I can vouch for this from when I was hosting even. I also probably wouldn't go there today, but not for the same reasons I wouldn't vote for the people in point one. I just feel like she can wait, though I said that last time too. Understood on Summer. I did like that post too because she was going against the grain, which is something mafia doesn't need to do. But the "I'm going with player x because nobody would vote for player y" makes me tilt my head a lot, especially after the last game when you pulled that on us. Like the other points being made about her were fair as well, but that really got me.

3. Like a process of elimination is fine, I just don't really know if I fully feel right about who I have there. And again it's almost easy. "Nobody is really sticking out so put this person into this slot."

4. Yeah, very true. I see your point here. I would like to see more people answering as well. RE: your last sentence, I... probably would, but I would also have to look into it. The biggest indicator for me if somebody has accepted will be a difference in their day one vs. day two posting. That's a very duh sentence, but it would take going back and comparing peoples' posts from both days. I think at least tonally we'll be able to feel a difference. That might be a good exercise to do actually, and it's something that might help me feel more solid about my town reads since you three are the only ones who have answered. So for purely selfish reasons I'll do that tonight and will report back to see if I spot anything.

[The Dissident]

Just popping in, haven't read too much of the last page. But realized I didn't mention and should mention the following:

I recieved an offer and declined it during the night phase to join the mafia.

[Inconquerable]

Fair enough, I’ve been a stinky leader this go around, but if my fellow knights really want to kill off a mafia member today, overthrowing your “leader” is not the way to go.
Where’s my niece at? She should be able to vouch for me.

But also, I haven’t given you a good reason to vote for anyone else because I’ve became a jaded mafia player who can no longer read people, so do whatever feels good to you.

Well frig let's unpack this! Talk to me about who you're feeling less than great about. I know you've mentioned Lotha and Timo, are they still people you're looking at? I'm tempted to un-vote you, but I need something to work with here.

[Inconquerable]

Just popping in, haven't read too much of the last page. But realized I didn't mention and should mention the following:

I recieved an offer and declined it during the night phase to join the mafia.

[Ubik] get in here, we've got a live one!! I was going to go confirm my town reads, going to check into Dissident's posts to see if I see anything strange between the two day phases.

[UhohitsJulianna]

5. The Dissident. Kinda the same feeling for zaz as well. I feel like all posts have been logical- hasn't really rocked the boat or anything, but at this time I think that's understandable for both a townie or a mafia player. I'm not super comfortable with them this high in my list, but the below players gave me more right off the bat "possibly" mafia vibes more. So here he is.

I see what you’re saying here, but you did agree with his longer post near the end of day one. I guess I’m… maybe slightly concerned that you agreed with his points but don’t feel comfortable having him higher than middle of the road. Could you walk me through his position here?

He's in the middle for me as I do see his logic in his posts and I think he's been making good points as a logical player. My main discomfort with his position in my list (which I was referring to) is that I don't have much evidence that he is town or mafia- just that he's good at logical arguments. This is a great tool to use on either side(town/mafia). The reasoning he has put forward makes me want to trust him- I just don't have anything concrete to make me feel confident in that just yet. I'm hoping to learn more and maybe we'll see if that gut feeling is accurate or not. Seemed like a good 50/50 feeling and that a number 5 position represented that.

[Silver]

HI SORRY I HAD AUDITIONS THIS MORNING. (They went well, although I did not get all the spots I wanted, but it's all good, for those curious. I have drowned my sorrow in Mexican and moved on.)


SO. Reads list. I definitely feel like I'm getting more of a feel on how y'all play now and how things in this game are shaping up. I'd also like to note that, historically in my many years of playing mafia, I REALLY stink at picking them out, so I try to solve who's town first which usually works better for me. So that's how I approach things, I guess, when going for reads, and unless I state otherwise my reads lists go from most town to least.
Also, did I only post once earlier? Oops. I thought I posted at least twice.

Town lean:

1: Ubik. From my understanding, it appears a fair few of y'all are a bit suspicious of him and y'know that's fair. But I'm not really seeing where you guys are coming from. I also don't like to judge based off of past games, because of course people are gonna play differently game to game (especially with all the roles y'all do!) but as I've read through his posts I've been looking for little bits of chaos and I'm not really finding any? He just seems more straightforward this game and I like it. I actually like his question about the offer - Sometimes going through reactions to questions can be really helpful. (And also no, I did not)

2: ..... Incon. I KNOW IT'S A 180 HEAR ME OUT. I still don't like her question at the beginning of the game but I'm looking at her more as town as time goes on. I like the effort to solve and I'm getting a more townie feel now. Especially since she's really pushing people for their opinions and trying to drive the game on. I like it.

3: Timo. He's more on the neutral side but I like how he's thinking. His reads list was pretty solid, and I've been liking his thought progression. He's going for what he thinks is right and I feel like that's a pretty townie thing to do.

Neutral:

1: Zaz/Cam. He's been pretty quiet, I think. I get hesitant to read quiet peeps as mafia straight away, partly because I'm so busy so I get it. XD I did like what I've seen. So, yeah. Nice 'n' neutral.

2: Dissident. I'mma be honest here Diss's posts aren't really sticking out to me and I can't recall anything in particular. Sorry buddy. However, because of this, I'll be on the strict lookout so I can form a better opinion.

3. Julianna. Haven't really seen much from her. Would love to see more. Nothing really to note here, moving on.

4. Micky. I'm seeing a little bit of the sus stuff y'all are pointing out but also Micky's been having a track record of being busy lately, like me, so I'm hesitant to put him in the mafia category. I'm gonna hold out on my final call here.

Mafia:

1. Summer. Someone mentioned that Summer plays really angelically when she's mafia and I've been seeing a weird bouncing between angelic and fierce. Her Timo vote was weird and kinda out of the blue, and I don't like her explanation. It doesn't ring true to me.

2. Lotha. Funnily enough I still really agree with Lotha on a bunch of things but when I stopped to think about it this afternoon and as I was catching up I figured that a lot of the contradictions and chaos have been pushed or caused by Lotha. They're playing rather oddly, in my opinion. From Julianna's reads:

2. Lotha. She is either playing a very talkative mafia game or was a townie genuinely upset with Inc's strategy. On one hand if she were mafia- it would've made sense to jump on the first obvious target and try to convince everyone to kill them. She didn't go that route and I dont believe mafia would've stirred up as much of a ruckus about it if that had been their play and therefore at this time I believe she is innocent.

Julianna placed Lotha high on the town list because of this, but let's look at this at a different angle real quick. Lotha could have seen that opportunity to come in hard against Inc (A player that's historically come in and been vocal and a really good townie) and sow some doubts. It WOULD have been easy to try to get everyone to off Inc, but then that would be really suspicious later, right? Better to just pop up and disagree, indeed causing a ruckus (which we all know is a maf's best friend) before sinking back down and keep trying to cause chaos elsewhere. Lotha also votes for Summer without an explanation (I probably missed it tbh but it's not in the post with the vote which always makes me go "hrrrrrmmm") right after Summer says that her gut is saying to vote Lotha but "no one else is suspicious and it wouldn't go anywhere." Theatre? If not, voting someone just because they voted you possibly? I'm way more sus of Lotha than Summer at this point so I feel like maybe?

I think it's pretty safe to assume someone was asked and accepted. And who knows it might even be the person asking us all this fairly pointless question.

Also, this shade is... Shady. This might be a bit of a reach but is this a Voidbringer attempting to plant more doubts?


Also stuff has happened since I started this post, I noticed when I went to grab some quotes. I really don't know what to think of Dissident's admission about being asked to join the Voidbringers. I just.... Do not know. Send help.
Summer's post seems a bit theatre-y to me, just throwing that out there. Hmm.
Julianna! I have a bit of a pudding brain right now - Are you saying that you acknowledge Dissident is good at logically posting but you're not sure what side he's on, although you're slightly leaning town because of the feel you're getting from him now? Is that right? Also, what are your thoughts on him now that he's dropped this grenade into the topic?

I would also like to acknowledge the extreme length of time it took me to write this monster of a post and my apologies to those who just struggled through it, I'm fairly sure I topped being fully coherent halfway through and I'm sure there's typos scattered throughout. XD

[Inconquerable]

Ok Dissident Due Diligence time. I’m going to link his posts since there aren’t that many, and I’ll separate them between days one and two. This should make it easy to quickly jump into them and determine how everybody reads them.

DAY ONE
#1
#2
#3 (Drunkgate?)
#4
#5

DAY TWO
#6
#7

There is some fluff in day one, and three more posts than day two so far, but I don’t… really see much of a tonal difference? Like look at posts #2 and #7, they’re both very matter of fact right? “Hey this is what I think/this is what happened.” He’s short and to the point. Even his thoughts post (#4) is pretty much “here’s a thought, here’s another, and another.” This is of course up for interpretation, so if somebody else sees something, please point it out. Right now I’m… tentatively buying what he’s selling. Definitely want to hear some more thoughts on this.

[Inconquerable]

He's in the middle for me as I do see his logic in his posts and I think he's been making good points as a logical player. My main discomfort with his position in my list (which I was referring to) is that I don't have much evidence that he is town or mafia- just that he's good at logical arguments. This is a great tool to use on either side(town/mafia). The reasoning he has put forward makes me want to trust him- I just don't have anything concrete to make me feel confident in that just yet. I'm hoping to learn more and maybe we'll see if that gut feeling is accurate or not. Seemed like a good 50/50 feeling and that a number 5 position represented that.

Gotcha, so it's kind of a "need to see more from" type of thing? I understand that. Would love to see your answers to Silver's questions, and what you think about the post I made above when you have a chance!

HI SORRY I HAD AUDITIONS THIS MORNING. (They went well, although I did not get all the spots I wanted, but it's all good, for those curious. I have drowned my sorrow in Mexican and moved on.)

Town lean:

1: Ubik. From my understanding, it appears a fair few of y'all are a bit suspicious of him and y'know that's fair. But I'm not really seeing where you guys are coming from. I also don't like to judge based off of past games, because of course people are gonna play differently game to game (especially with all the roles y'all do!) but as I've read through his posts I've been looking for little bits of chaos and I'm not really finding any? He just seems more straightforward this game and I like it. I actually like his question about the offer - Sometimes going through reactions to questions can be really helpful. (And also no, I did not)

So first of all, at some point I'd love to hear about the auditions! Now, Ubik, I tend to agree with you here. I guess I use meta more than I thought I did, but he feels so much more townie to me here than I thought he did in the last game, I just see him actively trying to solve the game, which makes me feel really good about him.

Neutral:

2: Dissident. I'mma be honest here Diss's posts aren't really sticking out to me and I can't recall anything in particular. Sorry buddy. However, because of this, I'll be on the strict lookout so I can form a better opinion.

I put all of his posts into one above, would like to know your thoughts on the comparison between days one and two. It's not a lot to go on admittedly, but it's what we have to work with so far to determine if we believe that he turned down the offer.

Mafia:

1. Summer. Someone mentioned that Summer plays really angelically when she's mafia and I've been seeing a weird bouncing between angelic and fierce. Her Timo vote was weird and kinda out of the blue, and I don't like her explanation. It doesn't ring true to me.

2. Lotha. Funnily enough I still really agree with Lotha on a bunch of things but when I stopped to think about it this afternoon and as I was catching up I figured that a lot of the contradictions and chaos have been pushed or caused by Lotha. They're playing rather oddly, in my opinion. From Julianna's reads:

2. Lotha. She is either playing a very talkative mafia game or was a townie genuinely upset with Inc's strategy. On one hand if she were mafia- it would've made sense to jump on the first obvious target and try to convince everyone to kill them. She didn't go that route and I dont believe mafia would've stirred up as much of a ruckus about it if that had been their play and therefore at this time I believe she is innocent.

Julianna placed Lotha high on the town list because of this, but let's look at this at a different angle real quick. Lotha could have seen that opportunity to come in hard against Inc (A player that's historically come in and been vocal and a really good townie) and sow some doubts. It WOULD have been easy to try to get everyone to off Inc, but then that would be really suspicious later, right? Better to just pop up and disagree, indeed causing a ruckus (which we all know is a maf's best friend) before sinking back down and keep trying to cause chaos elsewhere. Lotha also votes for Summer without an explanation (I probably missed it tbh but it's not in the post with the vote which always makes me go "hrrrrrmmm") right after Summer says that her gut is saying to vote Lotha but "no one else is suspicious and it wouldn't go anywhere." Theatre? If not, voting someone just because they voted you possibly? I'm way more sus of Lotha than Summer at this point so I feel like maybe?

This is a hot take! Lotha's vote explanation was in the vote post, and it was for the quote that you gave from Summer above. I admit I hadn't thought of the OMGUS revenge vote angle, but I do see the point she's making with Summer about her choosing to vote for Timo because it would be easier to get people on side. I'll let her answer the rest though.

I do... kind of see your point about coming in to cause chaos after my claim, but I don't think she's caused chaos outside of that, and to be fair, I totally set the chaos off right at the start haha. I do like this take from you though, even if I don't entirely see it. This helps me with you quite a bit.

I think it's pretty safe to assume someone was asked and accepted. And who knows it might even be the person asking us all this fairly pointless question.

Also, this shade is... Shady. This might be a bit of a reach but is this a Voidbringer attempting to plant more doubts?

So on it's own... possibly. But she did back up on this later on after Ubik answered our concerns more in depth, and I don't really think mafia would back down on their position? Like mafia likes to stay consistent right? So to me, mafia probably would have continued to argue the point, or just dropped it. This could just be like... don't wanting to be wrong about my reads though. Based on this, would you feel more comfortable voting for Lotha or Summer?

Summer's post seems a bit theatre-y to me, just throwing that out there. Hmm.

I'm in two minds about her post, which is why I didn't un-vote right away, though I considered it. On the one hand, I see a frustrated townie starting to feel the pressure building on them. On the other, I see a potentially caught mafia trying to claim (or very strongly hint at a role) as early as possible to redirect the votes. I'll need to see what she says in follow up. I can assume based on your reads list and the theatre idea, but what is your take on it?

[Andy92]

Day 2 vote tally:

1. Summer votes for Timo
2. Lotha votes for Summer
3. Inc votes for Summer

[UhohitsJulianna]

Julianna! I have a bit of a pudding brain right now - Are you saying that you acknowledge Dissident is good at logically posting but you're not sure what side he's on, although you're slightly leaning town because of the feel you're getting from him now? Is that right? Also, what are your thoughts on him now that he's dropped this grenade into the topic?

It's definitely as Inc said a "need to see more from" type of deal. Even now with Dissident unloading the fact that the mafia attempted and failed to recruit last night. With reviewing their posts everything still seems very logical and matter of fact. I don't really see the benefits of being mafia and making such a claim? IF he isn't stating the truth I see it two ways: the mafia could've either made no offer and Dissident knows this and can openly claim to having rejected the offer or he could've actually received the offer and accepted it. Either way just by acknowledging the offer openly draws a lot of attention to their actions and I don't believe that is something a mafia player would invite.
As stated before we do have a cop on our side and maybe that's something worth investigating? Overall I'm not fully convinced that Dissident isn't mafia, but if he was I don't see the strategy in bringing up the offer at all in that case. So at this time I'm inclined to believe him to be town.

[Micky]

@Incon

By the way just to make clear - I'm not asking that question about the mafia offer to trick anyone. If you got the offer and refused it, it's in all of our interest to know.

This quote for Ubik has me suspicious as of right now. While I agree, I think we should all know if someone got an offer from mafia, I don’t think it’s in everyone’s best interest. The townie would most certainly be killed in the night phase as a way to send a message.

Ubik has a way of wording things, to his credit, that always make me second guess what I’m reading and what I’m leaning towards.

I can’t tell how to feel about it, really, but it’s just for some reason sticking out to me.

Now dissident is claiming to have gotten an offer from mafia, does that seal his fate?

Ubik has me questioning my own thoughts all the time!

[Timotheus]

If nobody counter claims, I'm not sure I'm willing to vote for Summer. I think she's suspicious, and I know it could be a mafia trap to find our leader, but it's our most important role. We can't just casually vote her out, if nobody else speaks up?

The Dissident - I think I believe him. The only way this doesn't work if the mafia didn't offer anybody a spot last night, like Incon said. For a player like The Dissident, laying low is a way easier (and I think better) mafia move. I'm not saying I trust him 100%, but he goes up my list.

[Ubik]

I agree Timo. I don't think I'd have been going for Summer today anyway, but that's too big a deal to ignore.

Also thinking the same way about the Dissident. I agree Inc that the reads over the two days aren't suggestive of accepting an offer. I had him low based on the day 1 stuff so unless there's another claim, I'm inclined to believe him. May make him a target but the mafia have targets elsewhere too now.

So I'm not going with Summer. Definitely not going with Timo. Dissident's got a clear from me for now. I don't feel comfortable where we're headed, so let's see if people can get on board with something else.

DEADLINE VOTE: MICKY

[Lotha]

I would've been more willing to follow Summer's vote if she claimed Wit instead of Dalinar. As it is, she's wrong about me, so it's possible that she's also wrong about Timo.

Not sure I believe that Dissident rejected the offer but let's let that sit for now.

DEADLINE VOTE: SILVER

I see why I may have looked suspicious to you if you're town, but I've made myself a pretty easy target for mafia to try to push on me, so this vote is in response to that.

[Timotheus]

Ok, how do we feel about Silver? I don't agree with her points on Lotha, but that's because I know how Lotha plays. She's doesn't have the experience we have. For the rest I think she's done a pretty good reading on everybody.

I personally prefer voting for Micky.

[Lotha]

I feel like we haven't got anything on Micky? (Well, or Silver, but I do have a bigger reason for voting her. She said it herself that she thinks she's gotten a good idea of how we play.)

Tbf I'm the first person who says that chaos is a mafia's best friend (which is Silver's main reason for suspecting me), but in this case, Inc was the one setting off chaos from the start whereas I've just been poking people after that to see what they say and how they react.

If you guys are so set on Micky then I'd like him to come forward with his role I suppose - or any night time findings. Summer did it after getting voted for and so far no one's counter claimed her so that's looking good for her.

[zazisaspaz]

Aww Timo, no worries if you guys kill me off, I might be important in the books, but here i just get to make a tyrannical kill vote, and clearly I don’t know who to vote for so no huge townie loss if it comes to that!

People keep questioning Micky which is good, because I frankly don’t see it... at least not yet. Anxious to see how today unfolds and possibly rescind my vote. Also, where has Cam been?

[Ubik]

Ok, how do we feel about Silver? I don't agree with her points on Lotha, but that's because I know how Lotha plays. She's doesn't have the experience we have. For the rest I think she's done a pretty good reading on everybody.

I personally prefer voting for Micky.

I also think that if she's looking to start a bandwagon... Lotha is a dumb person to pick? Like, nobody has her low, nobody's jumping on that. Having Summer there could be more in that vein as people were beginning to vote for her, but they were also beginning to vote for her for a reason. My thoughts on Silver are still that I'm wary of her, but that's mainly through past games and inactivity, rather than anything in particular she's posted. I'm still not willing to go there yet.

With Micky, I'm not convinced by what he's giving us, it feels like someone second guessing what they're writing. Take his view on my post above - I understand why on its own someone might think it a little odd, and it echoed what initially worried you, but I've given a fairly thorough explanation of it since and we've got some information out of it that the mafia would've known already, which now gives us a potential avenue to clear Diss or find a mafia.

[Timotheus]

I'll make a new list later, based on what's happened on the last two pages. I'll try to focus on Silver and Micky the most, but also on The Dissident and Summer, considering they've made pretty big claims.

For now, I feel I pretty much agree with Ubik.