The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

[zazisaspaz]

Oh well at least now I know why Lotha gets so annoyed with me; she thinks I’m too nice hahahaha! You should meet our mother! She’s a kindergarten teacher and an actual saint. I was raised that if I was going to say something not so nice, I had to say three nice things. Hahaha sorry it grinds your gears!

Hurray that no one died, but honestly whether someone died or not I still wouldn’t know who is “most suspicious” to me. Obviously we don’t want the cop to blow their cover, so we’re really not going to figure out much more today and that’s why I’m super ready to just vote for someone and see what happens.

Deadline Vote: Timo
But I gotta say, your color coded list is a true thing of beauty! Puts my whiteboard to shame!

[Lotha]

What's the reason behind the Timo vote?

[zazisaspaz]

1) Andy hasn’t spoken about the game in our group chat yet so either Cameron and/or Timo must be mafia
2) He’s going against the grain of other major players, but not drastically. Enough so that if he were mafia, he could still play it off and try to redirect suspicion onto other players.
3) Curious how others will respond to this deadline vote.

[The Dissident]

@Lotha I never said you meant to encourage claims. But your wording in your post comes across that way. I do believe you're town.

Well done to our doctor. In terms of the fake claim idea floating around, it makes no sense because it would instantly out Inc if she was making the fake claim, the only thing it does is set someone up for a lynch in the day phase then she would be eliminated in the night by the other Vig. Unless there is some longcon I'm not seeing the idea behind it. She comes across as town.

Yea part of the reasons I've been less vocal than I'd like is work got busier than expected. Plus the weather here has been awful up until very recently so I've tried to get some sun before I burn too badly.

[Lotha]

@Summer: Game talk outside of the forums is forbidden, but other reasons seem understandable.

@The Dissident: yeah fair enough that it seemed that way to you, I just wanted to clarify my intentions, since your post came across that way to me.

[UhohitsJulianna]

Without knowing how everyone historically plays this game- I may be way off of what is actually going on with everyone strategies. However from posts on this thread alone and my own speculation and gut feeling my list is as follows:


1. Inconquerable. Although I'm not fully convinced she is who she says she is, I do believe she was the largest target on day 1 and therefore she was most likely who was saved last night. This is based on these posts alone- and I don't personally see who else was a target other than if the mafia is more familiar with everyone strategies and went after someone who was playing a similar strategy to the other games. Although this is plausible- I think it would've been hard for Kaladin to read mafia's intentions and save that person if it wasn't Inc.

2. Lotha. She is either playing a very talkative mafia game or was a townie genuinely upset with Inc's strategy. On one hand if she were mafia- it would've made sense to jump on the first obvious target and try to convince everyone to kill them. She didn't go that route and I dont believe mafia would've stirred up as much of a ruckus about it if that had been their play and therefore at this time I believe she is innocent.

3. Timo started off with making lists and questioning next steps, etc. This comes across to me as a townie trying to make sure we all get our shit together. This is purely based on a gut feeling that theyre trying to help the townies consolidate their thoughts. On the other hand, it could also mean that they're mafia trying to move the game along and see who is most suspected and who a good target might be. I just have taken their questions and thoughts as trying to point us down the right path on decision making and therefore I believe they're innocent.

4. zaz(thespaz). Comes across as kind of indifferent at this time- which is understandable this early in the game, but this could also be a lay low mafia play. Therefore, I'm more suspicious of him, but I just need to see how he continues to play to get a better gauge on what side he's actually on. Hasn't given me as much to go off of so at this time: innocent until proven guilty.

5. The Dissident. Kinda the same feeling for zaz as well. I feel like all posts have been logical- hasn't really rocked the boat or anything, but at this time I think that's understandable for both a townie or a mafia player. I'm not super comfortable with them this high in my list, but the below players gave me more right off the bat "possibly" mafia vibes more. So here he is.

5. Micky. I think the questions and statements asked at this time hasn't really proven to be one way or another, but I just haven't made up my mind on what the play is here. So I'm just going to keep ya here in the middle for the time being.

7. Ubik. I feel the same way about Ubik as Micky. For me their slots could be interchangeable. Both have provided very logical statements. Ubik has started trying to give us more to think about but this has given me the "mafia trying to gauge townies thoughts" vibe. Although logical and I agree with their posts- the timing and question about the mafia invite was pretty strategic. It just raised my suspicions a bit more as the mafia player trying to gauge the room if you will.

8. Summer (zazisaspaz). Coming out of the game ready to kill without much information concerns me. This may just be the way she plays, but to me that makes me trust her less.

9. Silver. Not much to go from, but the post being so ready to vote Inc out and that being it is what got them here on the list. I hate to make a decision based on one post but this is a list of trust and therefore I cant trust much out of what I've seen.

[Ubik]

Okay cool, I think we're now just waiting on Silver for a response today? I'd like to maybe hear a little more from Dissident on his general thoughts on other players as well, even if it's just two or three he's wary of right now.

EDIT - scratch that, turns out we've not heard from zaz yet today either, thought we had.

[zazthespaz]

Sorry - I know I've been quiet today, probably will be for the rest of the day too. Might do a reads list tomorrow but here are some thoughts on what I've read so far:

Julianna: I bumped Julianna down based on THIS post. It kind of feels like a post for the sake of posting? I need to see more from her today, and hopefully some opinions of her own will help clear her for me.

I wouldn't read too much into that. I did something similar with your Day 1 reads and I think it's just her getting her thoughts out to form a history for herself.

Silver - She's been non-town twice in a row, three would be pretty unlikely (although not impossible). Kinda keen to make a vote for Inc, but maybe genuinely thought it a strange move, and again, would you be so open about wanting a day one kill as mafia? Again, not likely to vote here yet.

Not a fan of this argument. Odds are against her being mafia 3x in a row, but it's happened (see: Andy92). She's been pretty quiet the past few games which let her slide by as mafia and led to a mafia win last time. I'm not saying she definitely is mafia, but I think everyone should have her on their highly suspicious list based on history. (Which I hate doing by the way but it's kinda inevitable)

2) [Timo's] going against the grain of other major players, but not drastically. Enough so that if he were mafia, he could still play it off and try to redirect suspicion onto other players.

I think this is an interesting take. Gonna have to go back and look into this.

zaz - In my brief time playing the game, he's been one of the best players. He's tough to read on either side, is logical and can argue with the best. He might be playing a little more guarded this game after the outing incident in the last game. His day 1 activity was kind of like dipping his toe in the water, engaged with Inc's claim but didn't dig too deep.

Aww thanks Ubik!

[Timotheus]

1) Andy hasn’t spoken about the game in our group chat yet so either Cameron and/or Timo must be mafia
2) He’s going against the grain of other major players, but not drastically. Enough so that if he were mafia, he could still play it off and try to redirect suspicion onto other players.
3) Curious how others will respond to this deadline vote.

I don't really know how to respond to this. The first one isn't an argument. The second one just describes my playing style and makes it look bad. If I'd said nothing you can say I'm suspicious because I'm quiet. If I'm agreeing with everybody, you can say I'm suspicious because I follow the crowd. If I play aggressively... You get the point.

I hope we can make a logical decision together. Considering 2 of the 4 people I'd like to make a decision with suspect me, this might become difficult. But let's try.

[Andy92]

I get name dropped at least once per page. I am a legend.

[zazisaspaz]

1) Andy hasn’t spoken about the game in our group chat yet so either Cameron and/or Timo must be mafia
2) He’s going against the grain of other major players, but not drastically. Enough so that if he were mafia, he could still play it off and try to redirect suspicion onto other players.
3) Curious how others will respond to this deadline vote.

I don't really know how to respond to this. The first one isn't an argument. The second one just describes my playing style and makes it look bad. If I'd said nothing you can say I'm suspicious because I'm quiet. If I'm agreeing with everybody, you can say I'm suspicious because I follow the crowd. If I play aggressively... You get the point.

I hope we can make a logical decision together. Considering 2 of the 4 people I'd like to make a decision with suspect me, this might become difficult. But let's try.

It’s absolutely terrible reasoning, especially since my gut says to vote Lotha before you, but no one else is suspicious of her so no sense in wasting time there. Might as well go with second best haha!

@Lotha, I know no outside conversation is allowed, but please feel free to ask Andy how many times he’s followed that hahahaha! Spoiler alert: it’s been 0 until now

[Lotha]

Wow Summer so much shade on Andy, I expected the 3 nice things first Love that you would've voted for me if you could get others to jump on that bandwagon. In that case,

DEADLINE VOTE: SUMMER

[Andy92]

It’s a little different when I’m the moderator.

[Ubik]

Fair question, but there's quite a big difference to my eyes - I'm not asking whether someone would hypothetically accept (and I agree, there's no good answer you can give to that), I'm asking if they got an offer, as one was almost certainly made last night. I want to see what people say first but I'll return to it, and we should be able to learn something one way or the other. I obviously want people to be honest about it and if they turned it down they have no reason not to be.

Right, but ultimately as soon as there's a yes, we're into "did you accept? No I didn't" territory right?

SNIP

I think it's pretty safe to assume someone was asked and accepted. And who knows it might even be the person asking us all this fairly pointless question.

This is spicy!! This is also the issue though, we're either taking people at their word on this, or we're not.

Okay, I think everyone but Silver has now posted today, and I can't be sure she'll be on today. So I'll just go more into this now, as you threw me some bones yesterday when I was trying to figure you out.

On your first question - Much like you said to others about your claim: can you see no reason why getting that reaction from someone, confirming they'd had an offer from the mafia, would be useful to us? Okay, we wouldn't be able to verify their answer straight away... but we have a cop. That's usable info.

But more generally, it was an event that happened overnight, that we have no knowledge about. Why wouldn't you ask people that question? Thinking about the group as a whole, there'd be three possible outcomes. 1. Everyone says they didn't get an offer. In that scenario, someone is lying, unless for some reason the mafia didn't make the offer which seems very unlikely. That's interesting and suggests there's a traitor. 2. One person says they got an offer and turned it down. As above, we have a cop. I think it would be unlikely that the mafia would own up to being made an offer, personally, so I'd be inclined to think of this person as town. But it's still testable. 3. More than one person says they got an offer and turned it down. One of the two is a liar. That's useful.

Timo's point that a townie who turned it down might be afraid to become a target is fine. I agree, it's possible. If no-one says they got an offer, we can't be certain someone became a traitor, but I'd still be more minded to think there was. Maybe Lotha's right and people always accept these offers in the game and it was a pointless question, I've not played often enough to know that, but it seemed worth asking from my perspective.

[Lotha]

But more generally, it was an event that happened overnight, that we have no knowledge about. Why wouldn't you ask people that question? Thinking about the group as a whole, there'd be three possible outcomes. 1. Everyone says they didn't get an offer. In that scenario, someone is lying, unless for some reason the mafia didn't make the offer which seems very unlikely. That's interesting and suggests there's a traitor. 2. One person says they got an offer and turned it down. As above, we have a cop. I think it would be unlikely that the mafia would own up to being made an offer, personally, so I'd be inclined to think of this person as town. But it's still testable. 3. More than one person says they got an offer and turned it down. One of the two is a liar. That's useful.

Hm. When you put it that way, I see the logic behind the question, yes.

So to answer it as it does not seem so pointless anymore, I did not get an offer. Anyone else care to venture an answer?

(I'm pretty sure there's a traitor, btw. But still it might be interesting to see what people say.)

[Inconquerable]

Ok I'm back. Going to go through some posts one by one and pick out a few things I want to clarify. I’m going to cut a few things out to keep this as short as possible but… no promises.

2. Ubik
So far have agreed with most of his points and he seems to be taking a very rational approach, also has not been pushing any suspicious plans or lynches yet or showing willingness to jump onto a bandwagon. The question he asked about who got the offer though seems a bit pointless, so that could knock him down.

So ok, this is interesting. I know you’re not a meta reader, but as somebody who uses it as a tool… him not pushing plans might be a slight red flag? Like overall I see him in this game trying to solve pretty hard, so I wouldn’t use this as a reason to vote for him, but it might be worth noting.

3. Micky
He's giving me a pretty standard town vibe this game, actually maybe even more than Ubik is. Although I'm not convinced and could change my mind about him (same as I could about Ubik and maaaaaaybe Inc).

Is this more of a tone read than content? Because I agree tonally, but the posts aren’t there for me.

6. Summer
I feel Summer is doing her classic "oh I'm an angel" impression that she lays on thick when she is mafia, and she gives off the impression of being ready to jump on any bandwagon while trying to play it off as a casual approach to the game. Also, I'm always pretty happy to vote for her in these games and have never trusted her so I can't deny there's bias, lol. But as for actual non-hunches, I don't have anything against her for the time being either.

Yeah… I can see this, especially the point about jumping on the bandwagon while trying to look like she’s casually playing. She also did name drop you and Timo as possible suspects for her, which I liked since she was actually bringing names to the table, but she didn’t put a vote down on either of you.

8. The Dissident
I can't really get a read on him and that unsettles me, but I feel like he's one of the people that I could stop suspecting if I saw more from him. Edit: oh, and he's low on my list because there was some misinterpretation on his part of my initial posts about Inc's role claim -- I did not encourage more claims.

So yeah I was waiting for you to comment on this since it was your post that he took exception to. I can see where he got the idea from, but I certainly didn’t come to the conclusion that he did.

9. Timo
Timo was the only one trying to push a lynch on day 1 and while I do get his logic behind it (somewhat), I didn't like the plan itself and also didn't like his insistence that we do kill someone because otherwise the Voidbringers could fuck us up.

Thinking about possible teams, my biggest gut feeling on mafia would be... Timo + Summer + Julianna, perhaps now joined by zaz or Ubik.

But then again, just my first theory and "reads".

I think hindsight makes Timo’s plan look worse considering the doctor save and everything, but I actually do think he had town intentions behind it. That said, my guard is up with him right now because of the last game, so I do need to be careful. Question for you, and this is conjecture but I’ll ask it anyway, who would you say is more likely to have accepted the recruitment between Cam and Ubik based on their posts in this phase?

Micky’s reads next!

Timo: I really got lucky with Timo last game, but I find he is playing a bit more of an aggressive game. Last game he was seemingly skating by until I called him out, so I feel like his posts have a bit more "pep in their step". Including calling me out, which I will address at the end of this post.

I do agree with this, like I’ve said he looks like he’s trying to solve the game rather than just posting for the sake of it.

Ubik: Ubik is allllways someone I suspect but that's usually because the way he plays makes me feel dumb I'm joking (kind of). He plays so smart and is very careful with his arguments that I am unsure if I can take him at his word or not. So I'm suspecting him, but that is subject to change.

Is there a specific post of his that you’re unsure of? Also I think it’s interesting that you and Timo raise the same point about him being “very careful” about his arguments. Do you read Ubik right now as trying not to say the wrong thing like Timo does?

Silver. Why? Silver has been mafia the last two games that we have played, and she has really skated by without much of a peep. While I am sure it is unlikely she would be mafia a third time in a row, I cannot help but wonder. I really cannot trust her at all until I hear more from her. She's the one I will be keeping the closest eye on.

So yes, absolutely need to see more from her today to come to a good conclusion, but I don’t think we should take the likelihood of being mafia multiple times into account (though she was The Clockmaker first). I imagine Andy would have randomized the list and not hand selected the roles, so it is entirely possible that she could have gotten mafia again. I don’t think speculation on that will help us much.

LEAN TOWN
Timo - kinda the opposite to his view on me, in that I played with him as mafia and he feels very different this time. Where as mafia he'd try to make inroads to get on your good side without really risking himself. I didn't like his idea for a plan, it felt too risky, but that he was offering that up didn't feel like mafia Timo to me, he's putting himself in the line of fire. Maybe he's trying a different strategy, but... I'm comfortable with him right now.

Summer - She's kinda bloodthirsty this game, which seems different but again, I'm not sure you'd go there on day 1 as mafia, you'd bide your time a little. This is kinda fragile reasoning so she's not a lock up here, but nothing she's done has pushed me the wrong way yet.

Lotha - Fiesty this game, guessing she had some pent up energy from missing most of the last one (my bad.) Not totally on the same page regarding how we're reading the players but we've agreed on a fair amount. She thinks my question about the mafia offer is pointless, which is fine because I thought her question to Inc yesterday was pointless too, evens.

Man, I was going to ask you why these were only lean towns, but you answered the question of why they weren’t solid towns right in each paragraph. I will ask though, what is your view of Lotha and Timo not seeing eye to eye in the posts before yours? Do you see it as a town/town misunderstanding or do you think there’s potential that one of them is mafia and slipped into your town reads (which is something I’m worried about as well). Also, is the order here concrete?

Silver - She's been non-town twice in a row, three would be pretty unlikely (although not impossible). Kinda keen to make a vote for Inc, but maybe genuinely thought it a strange move, and again, would you be so open about wanting a day one kill as mafia? Again, not likely to vote here yet.

Oh god, let’s not do likelihood math now! Talk to me a bit about Silver being lower than Summer here despite both of them being open to do a day kill in day one.

The Dissident - During Survivor I got the mafia vibe straight away and I'm getting it again here. Inc said he was similar in the other game he played as town, but I'm not quite sure (then again I died on night one so probably wasn't paying as much attention.) His first post was mechanics-based even despite Inc's claim, which as she pointed out to me in the last game was a bit of a red flag. Added some further thoughts at the end of the day, but they were all pretty safe. Maybe harsh of me to put him here rather than "need more" but wanted to at least come to a conclusion somewhere.

Just to clarify, my take on him being similar to other games was basically just that he doesn’t seem to pump the thread full of thoughts. I don’t really think I see alignment out of it either way. So far for me, he would be a process of elimination vote. Not really happy about it but that’s where I am. I agree with your points though, they’re preventing me from moving him up above Silver at this stage.

1) Andy hasn’t spoken about the game in our group chat yet so either Cameron and/or Timo must be mafia
2) He’s going against the grain of other major players, but not drastically. Enough so that if he were mafia, he could still play it off and try to redirect suspicion onto other players.
3) Curious how others will respond to this deadline vote.

On first glance, I like the initiative to vote, especially first. But, in day one you mentioned that you could vote for either him or Lotha based on the content of their posts. Could you do me a favour and show me some of the posts of Timo’s specifically that you took issue with? If you click on the subject title above the post, it’ll give you a link that will take me directly to the posts.

2. Lotha. She is either playing a very talkative mafia game or was a townie genuinely upset with Inc's strategy. On one hand if she were mafia- it would've made sense to jump on the first obvious target and try to convince everyone to kill them. She didn't go that route and I dont believe mafia would've stirred up as much of a ruckus about it if that had been their play and therefore at this time I believe she is innocent.

VERY good point.

5. The Dissident. Kinda the same feeling for zaz as well. I feel like all posts have been logical- hasn't really rocked the boat or anything, but at this time I think that's understandable for both a townie or a mafia player. I'm not super comfortable with them this high in my list, but the below players gave me more right off the bat "possibly" mafia vibes more. So here he is.

I see what you’re saying here, but you did agree with his longer post near the end of day one. I guess I’m… maybe slightly concerned that you agreed with his points but don’t feel comfortable having him higher than middle of the road. Could you walk me through his position here?

8. Summer (zazisaspaz). Coming out of the game ready to kill without much information concerns me. This may just be the way she plays, but to me that makes me trust her less.

Huh… I like this. Kind of makes me think that maybe Summer had the information she needed. My takeaway here is that if Summer is day killed and comes up mafia, it probably clears Lotha and Timo town. Conversely though I don't think her coming up town in this scenario necessarily implicates them right away. She named them, not the other way around. Thank you for this post, Julianna, makes me feel better about your alignment.

I wouldn't read too much into that. I did something similar with your Day 1 reads and I think it's just her getting her thoughts out to form a history for herself.

Yeah I agree. I’m not super worried about it, especially after her reads post, which bumped her up pretty high for me.

1) Andy hasn’t spoken about the game in our group chat yet so either Cameron and/or Timo must be mafia
2) He’s going against the grain of other major players, but not drastically. Enough so that if he were mafia, he could still play it off and try to redirect suspicion onto other players.
3) Curious how others will respond to this deadline vote.

I don't really know how to respond to this. The first one isn't an argument. The second one just describes my playing style and makes it look bad. If I'd said nothing you can say I'm suspicious because I'm quiet. If I'm agreeing with everybody, you can say I'm suspicious because I follow the crowd. If I play aggressively... You get the point.

I hope we can make a logical decision together. Considering 2 of the 4 people I'd like to make a decision with suspect me, this might become difficult. But let's try.

Do you also get the sense that she might be pushing an agenda?

It’s absolutely terrible reasoning, especially since my gut says to vote Lotha before you, but no one else is suspicious of her so no sense in wasting time there. Might as well go with second best haha!

Oof, Ubik tried to pull the same thing on us last game when he voted for Andy instead of me to try to get you and Micky on his side. Timo was the easier option of the two for you it seems, especially since some have been suspicious of him already. Really not a fan of this.

DEADLINE VOTE: Summer.

It’s early, but a lot of points seem to be stacking up against Summer for me, especially in the last few hours.

Okay, I think everyone but Silver has now posted today, and I can't be sure she'll be on today. So I'll just go more into this now, as you threw me some bones yesterday when I was trying to figure you out.

On your first question - Much like you said to others about your claim: can you see no reason why getting that reaction from someone, confirming they'd had an offer from the mafia, would be useful to us? Okay, we wouldn't be able to verify their answer straight away... but we have a cop. That's usable info.

But more generally, it was an event that happened overnight, that we have no knowledge about. Why wouldn't you ask people that question? Thinking about the group as a whole, there'd be three possible outcomes. 1. Everyone says they didn't get an offer. In that scenario, someone is lying, unless for some reason the mafia didn't make the offer which seems very unlikely. That's interesting and suggests there's a traitor. 2. One person says they got an offer and turned it down. As above, we have a cop. I think it would be unlikely that the mafia would own up to being made an offer, personally, so I'd be inclined to think of this person as town. But it's still testable. 3. More than one person says they got an offer and turned it down. One of the two is a liar. That's useful.

Timo's point that a townie who turned it down might be afraid to become a target is fine. I agree, it's possible. If no-one says they got an offer, we can't be certain someone became a traitor, but I'd still be more minded to think there was. Maybe Lotha's right and people always accept these offers in the game and it was a pointless question, I've not played often enough to know that, but it seemed worth asking from my perspective.

Please don’t talk about my bones. =D

I agree with you on almost this whole post, but my big concern is that this kind of relies on the cop outing themselves to verify the information. Unless the cop is in trouble vote wise, I would like it if they kept quiet for as long as possible. There are other options outside of them outing of course (i.e. casing the guilty person if they find one), but I’m wary about it still. I also don’t think Lotha thought it was a pointless question for the reason you say, I think she said that because the person who got the offer could lie either way, either to protect themselves because they turned it down, or to protect themselves because they accepted. That was my take on it though and I don’t want to put words into her mouth so she can got into it more if she wants.

Let me bounce a question back to you on this though, only two people answered the question, only one other person acknowledged it. What’s your takeaway on it so far? Or do you want to wait to see if more people answer before getting into it too deeply?

[Inconquerable]

Good god the coding, I don't know what happened. I'll try to fix it.

[Lotha]

Question for you, and this is conjecture but I’ll ask it anyway, who would you say is more likely to have accepted the recruitment between Cam and Ubik based on their posts in this phase?

I'm feeling better about Ubik than about Cam right now, although Ubik's question about the recruitment thing specifically could have been a way to get everyone else talking about it and not suspect him.

But if Summer is mafia (which I'm leaning towards the most now considering I voted her), it would make sense that she'd want to try and recruit Cam.

Edit: the Micky read is a tone thing yes. As for Ubik, I agree that if he's maf he's playing it safe, but so far he isn't really ringing my alarm bells the way Summer and Timo are.

[Timotheus]

I'm not 100% sure Summer's the right choice. But last page has been pretty bad for her.

I feel like I'm biased, because she's voting for me, so I want to hear from zaz and Ubik first. If nothing changes, I'm willing to vote for her, but I'll do it tomorrow, because I'm going to bed now.

[Ubik]

Ok I'm back. Going to go through some posts one by one and pick out a few things I want to clarify. I’m going to cut a few things out to keep this as short as possible but… no promises.

LEAN TOWN
Timo - kinda the opposite to his view on me, in that I played with him as mafia and he feels very different this time. Where as mafia he'd try to make inroads to get on your good side without really risking himself. I didn't like his idea for a plan, it felt too risky, but that he was offering that up didn't feel like mafia Timo to me, he's putting himself in the line of fire. Maybe he's trying a different strategy, but... I'm comfortable with him right now.

Summer - She's kinda bloodthirsty this game, which seems different but again, I'm not sure you'd go there on day 1 as mafia, you'd bide your time a little. This is kinda fragile reasoning so she's not a lock up here, but nothing she's done has pushed me the wrong way yet.

Lotha - Fiesty this game, guessing she had some pent up energy from missing most of the last one (my bad.) Not totally on the same page regarding how we're reading the players but we've agreed on a fair amount. She thinks my question about the mafia offer is pointless, which is fine because I thought her question to Inc yesterday was pointless too, evens.

1. Man, I was going to ask you why these were only lean towns, but you answered the question of why they weren’t solid towns right in each paragraph. I will ask though, what is your view of Lotha and Timo not seeing eye to eye in the posts before yours? Do you see it as a town/town misunderstanding or do you think there’s potential that one of them is mafia and slipped into your town reads (which is something I’m worried about as well). Also, is the order here concrete?

Silver - She's been non-town twice in a row, three would be pretty unlikely (although not impossible). Kinda keen to make a vote for Inc, but maybe genuinely thought it a strange move, and again, would you be so open about wanting a day one kill as mafia? Again, not likely to vote here yet.

2. Oh god, let’s not do likelihood math now! Talk to me a bit about Silver being lower than Summer here despite both of them being open to do a day kill in day one.

The Dissident - During Survivor I got the mafia vibe straight away and I'm getting it again here. Inc said he was similar in the other game he played as town, but I'm not quite sure (then again I died on night one so probably wasn't paying as much attention.) His first post was mechanics-based even despite Inc's claim, which as she pointed out to me in the last game was a bit of a red flag. Added some further thoughts at the end of the day, but they were all pretty safe. Maybe harsh of me to put him here rather than "need more" but wanted to at least come to a conclusion somewhere.

3. Just to clarify, my take on him being similar to other games was basically just that he doesn’t seem to pump the thread full of thoughts. I don’t really think I see alignment out of it either way. So far for me, he would be a process of elimination vote. Not really happy about it but that’s where I am. I agree with your points though, they’re preventing me from moving him up above Silver at this stage.

Okay, I think everyone but Silver has now posted today, and I can't be sure she'll be on today. So I'll just go more into this now, as you threw me some bones yesterday when I was trying to figure you out.

On your first question - Much like you said to others about your claim: can you see no reason why getting that reaction from someone, confirming they'd had an offer from the mafia, would be useful to us? Okay, we wouldn't be able to verify their answer straight away... but we have a cop. That's usable info.

But more generally, it was an event that happened overnight, that we have no knowledge about. Why wouldn't you ask people that question? Thinking about the group as a whole, there'd be three possible outcomes. 1. Everyone says they didn't get an offer. In that scenario, someone is lying, unless for some reason the mafia didn't make the offer which seems very unlikely. That's interesting and suggests there's a traitor. 2. One person says they got an offer and turned it down. As above, we have a cop. I think it would be unlikely that the mafia would own up to being made an offer, personally, so I'd be inclined to think of this person as town. But it's still testable. 3. More than one person says they got an offer and turned it down. One of the two is a liar. That's useful.

Timo's point that a townie who turned it down might be afraid to become a target is fine. I agree, it's possible. If no-one says they got an offer, we can't be certain someone became a traitor, but I'd still be more minded to think there was. Maybe Lotha's right and people always accept these offers in the game and it was a pointless question, I've not played often enough to know that, but it seemed worth asking from my perspective.

Please don’t talk about my bones. =D

4. I agree with you on almost this whole post, but my big concern is that this kind of relies on the cop outing themselves to verify the information. Unless the cop is in trouble vote wise, I would like it if they kept quiet for as long as possible. There are other options outside of them outing of course (i.e. casing the guilty person if they find one), but I’m wary about it still. I also don’t think Lotha thought it was a pointless question for the reason you say, I think she said that because the person who got the offer could lie either way, either to protect themselves because they turned it down, or to protect themselves because they accepted. That was my take on it though and I don’t want to put words into her mouth so she can got into it more if she wants.

Let me bounce a question back to you on this though, only two people answered the question, only one other person acknowledged it. What’s your takeaway on it so far? Or do you want to wait to see if more people answer before getting into it too deeply?

I'm bad at multiquoting so I'm just numbering the points I'm responding to here, added them to yours as well for ease.

1. Just to answer the last part first, the order was concrete in that the higher ones I had as likelier town, but obviously the gaps between could vary a lot. For instance, I didn't have much of a gap between Summer and Lotha, but there was a big one up to Timo and a bigger one up to you. It's not concrete in terms of being fixed. Summer going for Timo is less than ideal as I'm happy with him as town right now (though Lotha also had him at the bottom of her list.) I'd be interesting to hear more from Summer still, though, for instance what her thoughts on Micky and the Dissident are.

As to Timo/Lotha, honestly I didn't like Timo's plan because it needed a counterclaim to work, and that was unlikely to come, meaning we'd out you for nothing. So I agree with Lotha on the substance of that. But I still liked Timo coming up with it, I don't think he does that as mafia. It reminded me a lot of Purgatory where he and I argued on a plan. So basically yes, I can see them both being town and crossing swords. I also can't rule out that one is mafia.

2. Okay, Summer and Silver. I've just gone back and checked and I think I'm right in saying Silver has made one post during day 1. Now I know from being mafia teammates with her that she doesn't use this as a tactic to avoid detection, she's actually just busy a lot of the time like Micky. However, it's not giving me much to go on. And even though I've said it's unlikely she'd be non-town again... as zaz and yourself said, I can't really base anything concrete on that. My main feeling was that I'm not ready to go there yet. I wouldn't blame a vigilante going there on night 3. So Summer, although the calculation may have changed somewhat since my post, was probably more what you'd say was a tone read. Honestly, her first post really rubbed me the wrong way when I read it, the whole "sure I think she's innocent but maybe we should kill her anyway" thing. But, echoing what she said later on, I can see that much more in the line of a jaded play than a mafia one. I also liked what she said about people acting confused about your play so far, because to me, anyone that had read your posts and the roles should have been able to come up with a reason why you might've done it as a townie.

3. Noted, and yeah on the process of elimination vote thing, that's a good way of putting it.

4. That's fair, but having the info out there still gives the cop a chance to check and clear someone for themselves or find a mafia. Whether they share that is up to them, but it gives them the choice.

My takeaway so far is that it unfortunately became a bit mired in suspicion (I mean, understandably in this game), whereas in an ideal world everyone would've given an answer quickly as Timo did. I still think no-one saying they received one, when I'm pretty sure everyone will have read my question, suggests something, but I'd still like everyone to state one way or the other if possible. I also haven't received one, and I think you'd believe me when I say that I wouldn't have accepted if they had.