The Stormlight Archive Mafia - Life Before Death - The CHAOS of Night 3

[Timotheus]

Nice, well done the doc.

One question to start the day - did anyone receive an offer from the mafia?

I did not.

[Ubik]

Cheers Timo, and thanks for the list. I agree that it can be helpful if we all lay our thoughts on the table, I'll do my own at some point. We're in a decent position thanks to Kaladin, and presumably Kaladin made that decision based on day 1 posts, so I think Inc's strategy has paid off already there.

By the way just to make clear - I'm not asking that question about the mafia offer to trick anyone. If you got the offer and refused it, it's in all of our interest to know.

[Inconquerable]

Nice, well done the doc.

One question to start the day - did anyone receive an offer from the mafia?

The doc like The Rock? =D

So I'm going to ask you the same question I asked Lotha about this yesterday, will you believe people if they say no? And conversely, where would you go with it if they said yes? I like the question, but nobody's going to come out and say "hey I got an offer and accepted!"

I had to sleep so I haven't done my night kill possibilities list yet, but I will do that and Timo's list (though I don't think much has changed since my last one).

[Inconquerable]

My list

Green Zone.
Nobody.

Yellow Zone.
1. Lotha. She seemed genuinely upset with Incon’s opening on day one. She could have acted that of course, but it seemed real to me. Most of her day one posts are on that subject. Aside from that, she disagreed with me, but everybody who touched that subject disagreed with me. She’s also in Inconquerable’s top list, so I’m prepared to work with her.

2. Inconquerable. She’s either playing a fancy mafia game, or a fancy townie game. So far, I think she’s been asking the right questions to the right people, and although I don’t agree with her actions, I can see value in what’s she’s doing. I think it’s dangerous to follow her blindly, so if we’re going to work together as a team, I’m not willing to let her take the lead. I’m not saying I should be the leader, because I know everybody’s going to suspect me at one points, but I’d rather have the top of my list working together to come up with somebody.

3. zaz(thespaz). Used his own experience from last game to defend Incon’s actions. Called me out when he didn’t agree with me, but in a logical way. Seems to be playing a regular zaz-game.

4. Ubik. Also on the top of Inconquerable’s list, so that definitely influenced me to put him this high. I was a mafia with him last game, and I got to read his posts from that point of view. All of his posts seem very calculated. Just a feeling. In essence, I think he hasn’t said anything suspicious, so I’m prepared to work with him.

Orange Zone
5. Julianna. Hasn’t posted a lot, but did a pretty good job keeping up with everybody, considering this is her first game. I have no idea how to read her, so she’s somewhere in the middle for me. Her posts made sense, but were all very ‘follow-the-pack’-ish.

6. Summer (zazisaspaz). Claims she’s fine with killing Inconquerable on day 1, even though she thinks she’s innocent. Thought that was odd. For the rest she’s been playing a pretty normal game. Called me out as usual. That might be a factor why she’s more towards the bottom of my list.

7. The Dissident. He kind of echoed my fear on no-lynching. Afterwards completely ignores all my arguments, and goes along with the pack.

8. Silver. Posted once, in response to my post. Claims she thinks Inconquerable looks guilty and is fine with voting her out.

Red Zone
9. Micky. Micky, Micky, Micky. I love him, but somehow I always suspect him. He’s like Andy 2.0. And Andy’s not playing, so I guess he’s Andy 1.0 now. Everything he’s said screams ‘I’m mafia, but I’m trying to play a perfect townie’ to me. He’s giving nothing away. Everybody is ‘normal’. A lot of what he’s saying reminds me off my day one last mafia game.

Really like this from Timo. A few questions I do have for you though, if you don't mind?

Talk to me about Ubik. I have him at the top of my list and that made you put him in the yellow zone, but you think his posts are calculated. Could you go into that a bit more? Do you see them as calculated in like... a planned out way (i.e. he's trying to say the right thing) or something else? I haven't gotten that vibe personally but I'd like to hear more about this.

Julianna will be a tough one to read since we don't have experience with her. I do fear she could slip entirely under the radar if we're not careful, but I also think if at some point we get down to one mafia left, we'll be able to find her pretty quickly?

Silver is really a big question mark for me. I've got her above Dissident in my list but... god I think I'm just really bad at reading her. Out off curiosity, and I don't know if this will help me or not but I'll ask anyway, why is she in the spot below Dissident?

I agree on Micky, and part of my plan today is going to be to push him into giving us something. For him to have re-read the thread and not come up with anything strange felt weird to me... but like, tonally felt like Micky? I can't really give much credit for that, and it's too easy to just tone clear him (which I wouldn't anyway), but it's in the back of my mind.

[Ubik]

Nice, well done the doc.

One question to start the day - did anyone receive an offer from the mafia?

The doc like The Rock? =D

So I'm going to ask you the same question I asked Lotha about this yesterday, will you believe people if they say no? And conversely, where would you go with it if they said yes? I like the question, but nobody's going to come out and say "hey I got an offer and accepted!"

I had to sleep so I haven't done my night kill possibilities list yet, but I will do that and Timo's list (though I don't think much has changed since my last one).

Fair question, but there's quite a big difference to my eyes - I'm not asking whether someone would hypothetically accept (and I agree, there's no good answer you can give to that), I'm asking if they got an offer, as one was almost certainly made last night. I want to see what people say first but I'll return to it, and we should be able to learn something one way or the other. I obviously want people to be honest about it and if they turned it down they have no reason not to be.

[Timotheus]

I put Ubik in yellow because I'm aware that my suspicion of him, could be because I was mafia with him last game. It feels like he's indeed trying to say the right thing sometimes, and I remember how nervous he was about that when we were mafia together. All in all, I'm not 100% sure about anybody yet, and he's just the last on my "positive" list.

If you come out and say you refused an offer, you can pretty much expect to be killed the night after. I'm not sure if there's a huge advantage in that, if you've got an important role. On the other hand, it's pretty important news... Not sure what'd be the best thing to do here.

[Lotha]

I think it's pretty safe to assume someone was asked and accepted. And who knows it might even be the person asking us all this fairly pointless question.

[Inconquerable]

Fair question, but there's quite a big difference to my eyes - I'm not asking whether someone would hypothetically accept (and I agree, there's no good answer you can give to that), I'm asking if they got an offer, as one was almost certainly made last night. I want to see what people say first but I'll return to it, and we should be able to learn something one way or the other. I obviously want people to be honest about it and if they turned it down they have no reason not to be.

Right, but ultimately as soon as there's a yes, we're into "did you accept? No I didn't" territory right?

I put Ubik in yellow because I'm aware that my suspicion of him, could be because I was mafia with him last game. It feels like he's indeed trying to say the right thing sometimes, and I remember how nervous he was about that when we were mafia together. All in all, I'm not 100% sure about anybody yet, and he's just the last on my "positive" list.

If you come out and say you refused an offer, you can pretty much expect to be killed the night after. I'm not sure if there's a huge advantage in that, if you've got an important role. On the other hand, it's pretty important news... Not sure what'd be the best thing to do here.

Gotcha re: Ubik. I haven't seen that personally, but you spent that time with him as mafia, so I will be on the look out for it.

I mean... there are possibilities here too (doctor protect, Lift being the target), but I do worry about this too. That said, I didn't receive an offer last night. I had hoped that I would so I could refuse and know that nobody was converted, but I didn't.

EDIT:

I think it's pretty safe to assume someone was asked and accepted. And who knows it might even be the person asking us all this fairly pointless question.

This is spicy!! This is also the issue though, we're either taking people at their word on this, or we're not.

[Lotha]

As for my reads, will try to order them from least to most suspicious, and I'm doing this from memory since I don't have the time to go back and re-read:

1. Inconq
I didn't like her strategy but so far it didn't harm town it seems, and it doesn't seem like she's pushing for anyone to be lynched or doing anything remotely mafia-ish.

2. Ubik
So far have agreed with most of his points and he seems to be taking a very rational approach, also has not been pushing any suspicious plans or lynches yet or showing willingness to jump onto a bandwagon. The question he asked about who got the offer though seems a bit pointless, so that could knock him down.

3. Micky
He's giving me a pretty standard town vibe this game, actually maybe even more than Ubik is. Although I'm not convinced and could change my mind about him (same as I could about Ubik and maaaaaaybe Inc).

4. Julianna
We don't know her, she's been chiming in, but not too much. Honestly this type of player is the first I look at for a potential first risk-free lynch (because there's almost always one quiet-ish mafia), but that's just a hunch, evidence-wise I don't have anything to hold against her.

5. zaz
Zaz has been pretty quiet compared to his usual level of activity and I'm having a hunch that even if he did start out as one of the Knights Radiant, he might've been asked to join the ranks of Voidbringers. He'd be a strong pick for them and would make sense considering that he didn't really draw much attention to himself. But, this is just conjecture based on the fact that his silence is making me a bit uneasy.

6. Summer
I feel Summer is doing her classic "oh I'm an angel" impression that she lays on thick when she is mafia, and she gives off the impression of being ready to jump on any bandwagon while trying to play it off as a casual approach to the game. Also, I'm always pretty happy to vote for her in these games and have never trusted her so I can't deny there's bias, lol. But as for actual non-hunches, I don't have anything against her for the time being either.

7. Silver
Silver's been a baddie so often since she started playing with us that I could insta-vote for her just based on that, lol. I think she's a very good player that shouldn't be underestimated and I'm keeping a close eye on her.

8. The Dissident
I can't really get a read on him and that unsettles me, but I feel like he's one of the people that I could stop suspecting if I saw more from him. Edit: oh, and he's low on my list because there was some misinterpretation on his part of my initial posts about Inc's role claim -- I did not encourage more claims.

9. Timo
Timo was the only one trying to push a lynch on day 1 and while I do get his logic behind it (somewhat), I didn't like the plan itself and also didn't like his insistence that we do kill someone because otherwise the Voidbringers could fuck us up.

Thinking about possible teams, my biggest gut feeling on mafia would be... Timo + Summer + Julianna, perhaps now joined by zaz or Ubik.

But then again, just my first theory and "reads".

[Micky]

Okay, so I had a little free time before I head into work, so I'm going to post my reads list.

I'm going to post it in order of who I think is the safest to least safe.

Lotha: I think Lotha is the safest bet for townie. She's playing with what seems like a whole lot of fire and passion this game, and although she is normally an intense player, I always find her to be MORE intense when she's townie than when she is mafia. She's also my mom, so I trust her.

Incon: I think Inkster is actually the role she claims to be. She's playing a very similar style to last game (Although, I don't think playing styles should always be compared between games), but since nobody counterclaimed her role, or anyone else claimed to be any other roles, I feel inclined to take her on her word at this point.

Timo: I really got lucky with Timo last game, but I find he is playing a bit more of an aggressive game. Last game he was seemingly skating by until I called him out, so I feel like his posts have a bit more "pep in their step". Including calling me out, which I will address at the end of this post.

Dissident: I don't know much about Dissident's playing style, but he's more borderline for me than anything. I need to see more about him before I really start to judge him. I also want to help him find that tracker that he done lost again

Cam: I ALLLLWAYS suspect Cam, but this game he doesn't strike me as Cam being mafia. He's participating a lot more, offering ideas and opinions and not posting as many "jokey" posts, although when he does, they are hilarious.

Summer: sumsum didn’t wish me a happy birthday so she’s suspicious AF to me


Julianna: I don't know Julianna, so she's going in the middle/lower tier just because I'm unsure if I can trust her and I need to understand her playing style, and while I'm sure she's lovely, I don't know if I trust her yet.

Ubik: Ubik is allllways someone I suspect but that's usually because the way he plays makes me feel dumb I'm joking (kind of). He plays so smart and is very careful with his arguments that I am unsure if I can take him at his word or not. So I'm suspecting him, but that is subject to change.

Now, that one that I trust the absolute LEAST

Silver. Why? Silver has been mafia the last two games that we have played, and she has really skated by without much of a peep. While I am sure it is unlikely she would be mafia a third time in a row, I cannot help but wonder. I really cannot trust her at all until I hear more from her. She's the one I will be keeping the closest eye on.

Now, these are all subject to change. The way mafia goes, I feel that I need to play each day as its own game. You know?

@Timo

I'm sorry you suspect me, but I feel that it is kind of coming out of nowehere. Are you bitter from last game? I don't suspect you much this round, but I am questioning as to why you think of me? Because I said I wasn't really sure about anyone on day 1? Is ANYONE ever sure about anyone on day 1? It's tough on day 1 to even come up with an idea of who to vote for. Especially when I didn't have much time to post in the first day phase between work and the craziness of my personal life. I love ya, you creepy uncle, but I think you hate me.

I wasn't trying to play a perfect townie, I was just trying to get a post in because if I didnt, i wouldve been suspect anyway.

[Timotheus]

9. Timo
Timo was the only one trying to push a lynch on day 1 and while I do get his logic behind it (somewhat), I didn't like the plan itself and also didn't like his insistence that we do kill someone because otherwise the Voidbringers could fuck us up.

I tried to come up with a plan, so we could take the Incon situation to our advantage. It was a good plan, and I still think it's dumb we didn't do it. We've got nothing right now, and we got lucky the doc saved us.

As for the "only one", there were a bunch more players who said they would've been fine with a day one lynch. At least I tried to give the situation a positive turn.

[Lotha]

As for the "only one", there were a bunch more players who said they would've been fine with a day one lynch. At least I tried to give the situation a positive turn.

True, and all of them are fairly low on my list.

The suspicion comes from disagreement mostly, and because I do think that's what mafia would want to push. That would've realistically been more likely to lead to a mislynch and a 4v4 situation on day 2 than what we have now. Maybe we got lucky, but it would've also taken a lot of luck to lynch a maf on day one.

[Timotheus]

I'm sorry you suspect me, but I feel that it is kind of coming out of nowehere. Are you bitter from last game? I don't suspect you much this round, but I am questioning as to why you think of me? Because I said I wasn't really sure about anyone on day 1? Is ANYONE ever sure about anyone on day 1? It's tough on day 1 to even come up with an idea of who to vote for. Especially when I didn't have much time to post in the first day phase between work and the craziness of my personal life. I love ya, you creepy uncle, but I think you hate me.

I'm not sure, I got no evidence. Somebody just had to be at the bottom of my list. I'm not claiming I'm 100% sure. I just went through everybody's posts, and thought you were the most suspicious.

How can I hate you? I just called you Andy 1.0! What more do you want?

[Micky]

I'm sorry you suspect me, but I feel that it is kind of coming out of nowehere. Are you bitter from last game? I don't suspect you much this round, but I am questioning as to why you think of me? Because I said I wasn't really sure about anyone on day 1? Is ANYONE ever sure about anyone on day 1? It's tough on day 1 to even come up with an idea of who to vote for. Especially when I didn't have much time to post in the first day phase between work and the craziness of my personal life. I love ya, you creepy uncle, but I think you hate me.

I'm not sure, I got no evidence. Somebody just had to be at the bottom of my list. I'm not claiming I'm 100% sure. I just went through everybody's posts, and thought you were the most suspicious.

How can I hate you? I just called you Andy 1.0! What more do you want?

To be Bobby 1.0

[Timotheus]

As for the "only one", there were a bunch more players who said they would've been fine with a day one lynch. At least I tried to give the situation a positive turn.

True, and all of them are fairly low on my list.

The suspicion comes from disagreement mostly, and because I do think that's what mafia would want to push. That would've realistically been more likely to lead to a mislynch and a 4v4 situation on day 2 than what we have now. Maybe we got lucky, but it would've also taken a lot of luck to lynch a maf on day one.

A miss-lynch? I only wanted a lynch when it was Incon vs. somebody who claimed the same role. That situation would've 100% led to a mafia death, which on day 1 is super painful for the mafia.

You're acting like I was pushing for a random vote if nobody had claimed Incon's role. It wouldn't have been a miss-lynch. It would've been a calculated lynch.

I get that people didn't want to take the risk, but it was 100% a town move.

What we have now is 100% luck. The mafia still has a vigilante and might even be with 4 right now.

[Lotha]

Yes, but there are two vigilantes, and there was a possibility Incon was doing the fake claim and wasn't a vigilante at all (as we previously discussed). And when I raised those same points, that's when I started disagreeing with the plan, because while it was a good idea to do something, it wouldn't have led us anywhere because it didn't account for all the possibilities -- even though you think it did. So while suggesting a plan was 100% town move, there was (to me) a lot of problems with the plan itself. At best, we would've gotten Incon's exact role (which might not be one of the vigis at all, which would have been dangerous for her -- although I believe she is one of the vigis).

And yes, you were pushing for it, and no, we don't know what might have happened, so it's just speculation at this point whether or not we would've gotten a dead mafia out of it. I'm not making a case that you're mafia, I'm just stating why you're at the bottom of my reads list. Like it or not, pushing a plan like that in an early stage is suspicious.

[Inconquerable]

Ok so I posted reads halfway through the first day phase and not a lot has changed, but here’s where I am right now.

TOWN
Ubik: Admittedly, I’m having some doubts here. I do still see like… classic town Ubik things in his posts from day one, I do like that he was asking about the offer in night one, but I don’t see where it was going? Certainly wouldn’t vote him out for this, but something I’m thinking about. For me though he’s a fairly safe townie bet.

Lotha: So what worries me here more than anything was her shutting down discussion on me twice yesterday. Conversely… I see her as being pretty solidly town right now. Is she playing a little bit more aggressively this time? Yeah, but I think I pushed her buttons in day one too, and her reactions seemed genuine to me.

Timo: I like that he’s leading the discussion right now and that he posted reads right off the bat. Is there a possibility of him trying to control the narrative? Maybe. But I agree with most of his points. Pushing the day kill in day one is a little suspect but I see where he was going with it. I do need to be careful that I don’t get sucked into his posts again, because he’s very crafty.

NEUTRAL
Cam: Truthfully, his explanation in regards to not adding to the conversation Lotha and I had was a red flag to me… but I also liked him bringing up other points about Timo that hadn’t been mentioned before. As mafia, I don’t think he does that, I think he goes along with the flow of the conversation. And it didn’t seem like him pushing an agenda either.

Summer: I’ll need to see more out of Summer at this stage in the game. I liked her early posts, she was also pushing a day one kill which was slightly concerning, but I did like her offering up possibilities for the day one kill. She did also offer up the possibility of going for a low hanging fruit kill (low posters), which raises red flags for me, but it wasn’t her first choice either. My take on her is pretty undecided really, I go back and forth and wish I could really nail down a read, but it’s still early so I’m ok keeping her in the middle.

Julianna: I bumped Julianna down based on THIS post. It kind of feels like a post for the sake of posting? I need to see more from her today, and hopefully some opinions of her own will help clear her for me.

Silver: Nothing has changed with Silver for me, I’m still of the same opinion that I had of her before, which was, I don’t know how to read her. I need to see a lot more from her and probably wouldn’t vote here today. Similar with Julianna, if she’s mafia, I think we’ll be able to tell later on as well.

Dissident: His longer post in day one keeps him low neutral for me, but I’m… ok (like, ok at best) with most of his thoughts there? I think? I liked that he brought up a point about Lotha, I don’t necessarily see it the way he does, but I like that he brought it up and, again, didn't just not post any takes.

VERY LOW NEUTRAL/EDGING MAFIA
Micky: I wish I could come to a solid conclusion here… but A) this feels way too easy, and B) I’m still tonally feeling like he’s ok? I’m going to go through his reads list shortly to push him on certain things, but I do like that he has actually done one for us. That much is helpful.

I’m… less than enthused with myself that I don’t have more concrete takes to be honest, Micky feels like a low hanging fruit, process of elimination choice at this point. Like I said when I’m back later, I’ll be doing some pushing. Hopefully more reads lists have come in by that point.

[Timotheus]

Yes, but there are two vigilantes, and there was a possibility Incon was doing the fake claim and wasn't a vigilante at all (as we previously discussed). And when I raised those same points, that's when I started disagreeing with the plan, because while it was a good idea to do something, it wouldn't have led us anywhere because it didn't account for all the possibilities -- even though you think it did. So while suggesting a plan was 100% town move, there was (to me) a lot of problems with the plan itself. At best, we would've gotten Incon's exact role (which might not be one of the vigis at all, which would have been dangerous for her -- although I believe she is one of the vigis).

And yes, you were pushing for it, and no, we don't know what might have happened, so it's just speculation at this point whether or not we would've gotten a dead mafia out of it. I'm not making a case that you're mafia, I'm just stating why you're at the bottom of my reads list. Like it or not, pushing a plan like that in an early stage is suspicious.

and there was a possibility Incon was doing the fake claim and wasn't a vigilante at all

In which case we would've killed her afterwards. Mafia dead. No speculation.

"So while suggesting a plan was 100% town move, there was (to me) a lot of problems with the plan itself"
I can 100% agree with you on that. So let's leave it at that, and hopefully I can prove you wrong at some point, and still work together in the meantime.

[Lotha]

No I meant faking a vigi claim as another important town role to throw the mafia off (although a risky move ofc, but your plan didn't account for it).

[Ubik]

Subject to change as the day progresses of course.

TOWN
Inc - everything she's done points to town. The timing of her claim didn't make sense as mafia, and the claim itself was pretty well guarded against drawing counterclaims, so I don't take that argument that a few people have used. I think her provoking of discussion helped the doctor in making a great choice in night one. Style wise, she's the same as the last game, asking questions of everybody, open to other ideas.

LEAN TOWN
Timo - kinda the opposite to his view on me, in that I played with him as mafia and he feels very different this time. Where as mafia he'd try to make inroads to get on your good side without really risking himself. I didn't like his idea for a plan, it felt too risky, but that he was offering that up didn't feel like mafia Timo to me, he's putting himself in the line of fire. Maybe he's trying a different strategy, but... I'm comfortable with him right now.

Summer - She's kinda bloodthirsty this game, which seems different but again, I'm not sure you'd go there on day 1 as mafia, you'd bide your time a little. This is kinda fragile reasoning so she's not a lock up here, but nothing she's done has pushed me the wrong way yet.

Lotha - Fiesty this game, guessing she had some pent up energy from missing most of the last one (my bad.) Not totally on the same page regarding how we're reading the players but we've agreed on a fair amount. She thinks my question about the mafia offer is pointless, which is fine because I thought her question to Inc yesterday was pointless too, evens.

NEED MORE
zaz - In my brief time playing the game, he's been one of the best players. He's tough to read on either side, is logical and can argue with the best. He might be playing a little more guarded this game after the outing incident in the last game. His day 1 activity was kind of like dipping his toe in the water, engaged with Inc's claim but didn't dig too deep.

Julianna - New so echo everyone's thoughts on being tough to read. Made a good point first off that Inc being the first to break the silence suggested good things. I won't vote for her today, but would still like to see more.

Silver - She's been non-town twice in a row, three would be pretty unlikely (although not impossible). Kinda keen to make a vote for Inc, but maybe genuinely thought it a strange move, and again, would you be so open about wanting a day one kill as mafia? Again, not likely to vote here yet.

Micky - What Timo said in comparing his style to himself in day 1 was good. Everything was very safe. His response to Inc's claim was very non-committal, but then I accept that day 1 is really tough. He's given a full reads list now however, which is to his credit. Pushing on Silver a lot, will be interested to see her response. We'll see what others come up with, his position could change still.

LEAN MAFIA

The Dissident - During Survivor I got the mafia vibe straight away and I'm getting it again here. Inc said he was similar in the other game he played as town, but I'm not quite sure (then again I died on night one so probably wasn't paying as much attention.) His first post was mechanics-based even despite Inc's claim, which as she pointed out to me in the last game was a bit of a red flag. Added some further thoughts at the end of the day, but they were all pretty safe. Maybe harsh of me to put him here rather than "need more" but wanted to at least come to a conclusion somewhere.