You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

[Inconquerable]

@SILVER when you get on, would you be willing to tell us if you were a poison target on night one? I got a notification from Dissident indicating that I either de-jailed you (which seems unlikely given Cam was jailed, but there could be a town jailer as well) or that the medicine I gave you saved you from being poisoned. This would be helpful because if you were saved from poisoning, we know we have (or had) Qyburn in the game. If you'd rather not answer I understand that as well.

EDIT: Sorry, Micky didn't see your post. Totally understood! Enjoy your time with your brother. =)

So I have to say I’m torn on Silver at the moment. The lack of posting has me wondering if she’s townie and just doesn’t care, or if she’s mafia again and trying to skate by,

My brother said thanks haha. We were FaceTiming. He’s a big “Christmas everyday” kinda guy lol

I'm glad we're talking about this, because she has been absent so it's tough to get a read there. The only reason I have her in my town category instead of neutral is because of the notification that I got from Dissident. Obviously this isn't going to be solid proof for anybody else, but I take his message to me as "mafia tried to poison Silver in night one but failed." She does have the history of skating by with a power role though you're right.

Not trying to put words in your mouth here, but I get the feeling that you didn't investigate her in the night based on this post. =P

That's awesome! So glad that you two connected this year!

Just want to say something that anyone can check - look at my previous town games when I've been directly accused or someone is acting very mafia to me - I don't go in softly. When Lotha was going for me in the last game, I was not polite and I directly called her out (read pages 11 and 12). You have said I was incredibly townie in that game. In the Purgatory game when I thought Timo was mafia (okay this is a little harder to check because Braingle is involved, but it's from about p26 on) - again, I was dismissive of his posts and called him out. I don't think it's fair to say this has never been seen from me before. I literally engineered a vote change against Micky because I thought it might help us win, I don't tiptoe around. Just because you happen to be the nicest person in the world normally, doesn't mean I can't call you out if I think you're a mafia trying to win.

I'll go back to that game and look on pages 11 and 12 as you suggested. From memory, the tone is way different and there's a lot more shade involved here, but I will double check. But like I made other points and you only care about the part of the read where I say you're acting differently? Strange.

RE: the last sentence, I never said you shouldn't! And I don't take offense to it at all, just like I hope you don't take offense to me casing you. The only thing I'm personally bothered by is if people are not having fun because I'm posting/talking a lot. That would upset me.

One point possibly in Ubik's favour, and I just thought of this while walking to work, is that if he was mafia, he would get a tonne of credibility points for voting for Timo first in day two after the doctor counterclaim. Like there was clearly mafia voting for Timo yesterday, Ubik starting that wagon would have helped him a lot. Though I guess this could be another case of him being concerned about optics since he also in the same post spoke about possible mafia roles screwing up the votes? I'll have to think about this. The vote spread for Timo was this:

1. Cam (voted against the counterclaim)
2. Micky (claimed cop with a guilty verdict - who I imagine will just be continually jailed for the duration of the game)
3. Summer
4. Andy
5. Ubik

Like this look kind of bad for the three last people right? If not Summer, then the last two. She put the vote over the edge, but still this gives her some credibility. Andy jumped on when the writing was on the wall, Ubik put the final nail in the coffin. So Andy and Ubik jump on at the end to gain townie points. I just... don't weigh this as heavily as other points I've made about Ubik? I don't know. I'll go check the other game to confirm the tone read but that's not likely to change my thought process here. The difference in reactions to the two doctor claims is pretty damning to me. And then associative reads with Summer as well, but that can wait.

[Inconquerable]

You're making me reread the math posts?!

[zazisaspaz]

Alrighty, so at this point we’ve got two people claiming townie roles, an MIA player who is hopefully doing alright in the real world, an Andy who can never be trusted, a clever Ubik, and a me who is suspicious because I started out sharing my whole thought process then stopped because sharing how I go back and forth on suspicions is apparently varryyyy suspicious. This is going to be fun.

Starting to lean towards one person in the Incon/Ubik debate...

Hoping Silver is okay and that we hear from her soon.

[Ubik]

You're making me reread the math posts?!

Oh yes.

I mean really you can ignore them, I'm talking about the ones where I respond to Lotha. I am not pleasant when I feel like someone's lying about me (and I do apologise for that). When I figure out that Andy's lying, I go a little insane and start trying to come up with weird ways of stopping him even if it means the town loses. The only real difference is that my one against you is long, and I'm not having that held against me in this game!

And the reason I'm not responding to your other points is basically as I said before, I'm not getting into a long quote match about it, I don't think that helps other people decide. If they want to pick out bits that they don't disagree with, they can feel free to ask and I'll go into them. That particular part just looked egregious to me since you've said so often how townie I was last time.

[zazisaspaz]

Starting to lean towards one person in the Incon/Ubik debate...
.

But maybe it doesn't have to be one way or the other, and maybe they are both on the same team but don’t yet know it!

[Inconquerable]

Alrighty, so at this point we’ve got two people claiming townie roles, an MIA player who is hopefully doing alright in the real world, an Andy who can never be trusted, a clever Ubik, and a me who is suspicious because I started out sharing my whole thought process then stopped because sharing how I go back and forth on suspicions is apparently varryyyy suspicious. This is going to be fun.

Starting to lean towards one person in the Incon/Ubik debate...

Hoping Silver is okay and that we hear from her soon.

I mean you make it pretty clear who you're leaning towards here, might as well come out and say it. =P

Also going to clear this up now. The thing about you going back and forth on me isn't necessarily suspicious if you had also posted things in between the posts where you were questioning what I was saying. It's the same thing as Timo right? I would have believed his progression on Cam in the middle of the day when he decided Cam was mafia if he had said, "I thought you were actually the Hound trying to protect the doctor, but x, y, and z makes me think you're just mafia," and then said that he was voting for Cam. It's the same with you. I know you're busy and you were feeling well, I'm genuinely sympathetic. But if you had made actual points instead of "Inc's bad, Inc's good, Inc's bad again," I would have totally town read you for it. And actually I did at first! I LOVED that you were questioning my motives! And the only reason you came up with for me being mafia was because I didn't trust Cam's claim and thought he was lying.

There's other stuff to that makes me think you and Ubik are in a team. When I'm back home from work I'll post it.

You're making me reread the math posts?!

Oh yes.

I mean really you can ignore them, I'm talking about the ones where I respond to Lotha. I am not pleasant when I feel like someone's lying about me (and I do apologise for that). When I figure out that Andy's lying, I go a little insane and start trying to come up with weird ways of stopping him even if it means the town loses. The only real difference is that my one against you is long, and I'm not having that held against me in this game!

And the reason I'm not responding to your other points is basically as I said before, I'm not getting into a long quote match about it, I don't think that helps other people decide. If they want to pick out bits that they don't disagree with, they can feel free to ask and I'll go into them. That particular part just looked egregious to me since you've said so often how townie I was last time.

There was a little bit of math with Lotha but not much luckily! Definitely not holding long posts against anybody.

That's fine. Others need to weigh in on it anyway because I'm pretty sure you and I are just going to vote one another today and the rest will have to make the decision. We're obviously not going to agree with one another if we're on opposite sites anyway, and if we are both townies then we did a really bad job finding each other!

Honestly I still see a difference in the tone. Like I said you tried to throw Andy under the bus here, I see none of that in the other game. Your response to me is shady and bringing up things that you didn't mention you had an issue with before, I don't see that in the other game. What's more...

viewtopic.php?f=13&t=4172&start=200#p213077

Instead of only defending yourself, you build a case on somebody else. That SCREAMS townie to me.

Anyway like I said we're probably not going to agree on this one way or the other. You don't see a difference, I do. It's kind of agree to disagree on this point. Like I said the tone is not the only thing I suspect you for and it's not even the main point. Point in your favour, you do point out semantics issues in both games. Probably not going to save you from my vote though. =P

I'm here to hash things out if you want to. If not, agree to cross vote and let everyone else decide I guess?

[Andy92]

Here’s the thoughts that went through my head yesterday:

No one is guaranteed to get voted out in this game in a day phase because we play with a time limit now. I thought it was probable that Timo’s two teammates were going to hold that vote up as long as possible in hopes that he would survive. Remember, 4 votes for Timo and he still would have lived because town didn’t reach a consensus. It would have been like Day 1 all over again.

Here’s the scanerios we have to work with from my point of view:

1. Incon and Silver are the two remaining mafia members as they were the only ones who refused to vote for Timo. Incon listing Silver with me and Micky in her townie group also backs this up.

2. Incon is telling the truth about protecting Micky. This means either one Summer or Ubik voted for Timo despite being his teammate, and Silver is the other one.

3. Summer and Ubik are both mafia, yet they both voted for Timo. I’m not sure how likely this is. I think it’s plausible one of them may have jumped in to get underneath that vote train so they could say “look, I voted for Timo so I’m a townie.” But I’m not sure if they both would have done that, especially when the difference between 4 votes and 5 votes was the difference between Timo surviving or not surviving.

That’s the way I see it now. Not 100% sure which way to vote. Silver not being around makes it extremely difficult but I’m likely to go in that direction if she doesn’t show up lol

The only person I trust in this game currently is Micky because he made a move that was proven to check out.

[Ubik]

Here’s the thoughts that went through my head yesterday:

No one is guaranteed to get voted out in this game in a day phase because we play with a time limit now. I thought it was probable that Timo’s two teammates were going to hold that vote up as long as possible in hopes that he would survive. Remember, 4 votes for Timo and he still would have lived because town didn’t reach a consensus. It would have been like Day 1 all over again.

Here’s the scanerios we have to work with from my point of view:

1. Incon and Silver are the two remaining mafia members as they were the only ones who refused to vote for Timo. Incon listing Silver with me and Micky in her townie group also backs this up.

2. Incon is telling the truth about protecting Micky. This means either one Summer or Ubik voted for Timo despite being his teammate, and Silver is the other one.

3. Summer and Ubik are both mafia, yet they both voted for Timo. I’m not sure how likely this is. I think it’s plausible one of them may have jumped in to get underneath that vote train so they could say “look, I voted for Timo so I’m a townie.” But I’m not sure if they both would have done that, especially with the difference between 4 votes and 5 votes was the difference between Timo surviving or not surviving.

That’s the way I see it now. Not 100% sure which way to vote. Silver not being around makes it extremely difficult but I’m likely to go in that direction if she doesn’t show up lol

The only person I trust in this game currently is Micky because he made a move that was proven to check out.

I'd not even thought of this - how is this not a dead giveaway? If I don't vote for Timo, he stays in. Was I trying to delay the conclusion on him? Not really, I was pretty resolute unless Silver got involved with a claim. I voted on him as I promised otherwise he might not have gone out.

Who doesn't vote for him? Even 5 votes might not have been enough if Littlefinger is playing. We needed 6 to be absolutely safe. Who didn't vote, despite me previously pointing this role out? Someone who might've known that Littlefinger wasn't making a difference, maybe?

[zazisaspaz]

Alrighty, so at this point we’ve got two people claiming townie roles, an MIA player who is hopefully doing alright in the real world, an Andy who can never be trusted, a clever Ubik, and a me who is suspicious because I started out sharing my whole thought process then stopped because sharing how I go back and forth on suspicions is apparently varryyyy suspicious. This is going to be fun.

Starting to lean towards one person in the Incon/Ubik debate...

Hoping Silver is okay and that we hear from her soon.

I mean you make it pretty clear who you're leaning towards here, might as well come out and say it. =P

Also going to clear this up now. The thing about you going back and forth on me isn't necessarily suspicious if you had also posted things in between the posts where you were questioning what I was saying. It's the same thing as Timo right? I would have believed his progression on Cam in the middle of the day when he decided Cam was mafia if he had said, "I thought you were actually the Hound trying to protect the doctor, but x, y, and z makes me think you're just mafia," and then said that he was voting for Cam. It's the same with you. I know you're busy and you were feeling well, I'm genuinely sympathetic. But if you had made actual points instead of "Inc's bad, Inc's good, Inc's bad again," I would have totally town read you for it. And actually I did at first! I LOVED that you were questioning my motives! And the only reason you came up with for me being mafia was because I didn't trust Cam's claim and thought he was lying.

There's other stuff to that makes me think you and Ubik are in a team. When I'm back home from work I'll post it.

Um... okay, but I’m pretty sure you’re just going to think I’m lying and that won’t get us anywhere hahaha:
Inky’s claiming to be Samwell and has claimed actions to back it up. So far there’s no reason to doubt her claims.

@Inky: I can’t really explain hunches. They’re just feelings and that’s why they go back and forth. I don’t really trust anyone of you except Micky so of course I’m going to be unsure of everyone. As you mentioned before, you’re looking for patterns and wanting to have a spreadsheet of our actions. This means that a bad hunch can incriminate me and me trying to explain my hunches with a weak and/or lengthy post isn’t going to help me out very much. That’s just not how I roll. I like to be to the point, no fluff, no wasting time with explanations that aren’t going to move the game forward. If people don’t see what I see, or feel what I feel, then there’s no need to try and explain it when I myself am not even 90% sure of a hunch. If it’s a strong feeling, then I would take the time to explain. (Except now I’m writing all this because I didn’t respond to the first time you brought it up because I figured it was a waste of time and this doesn’t help the game in my eyes, but it seems to be important to you so I hope this made an ounce of sense hahaha it probably didn't though)

[Inconquerable]

Here’s the thoughts that went through my head yesterday:

No one is guaranteed to get voted out in this game in a day phase because we play with a time limit now. I thought it was probable that Timo’s two teammates were going to hold that vote up as long as possible in hopes that he would survive. Remember, 4 votes for Timo and he still would have lived because town didn’t reach a consensus. It would have been like Day 1 all over again.

Here’s the scanerios we have to work with from my point of view:

1. Incon and Silver are the two remaining mafia members as they were the only ones who refused to vote for Timo. Incon listing Silver with me and Micky in her townie group also backs this up.

Ok re: reads lists, THIS IS WHY I ASKED FOR THEM! We can talk about this. If people are genuinely frustrated by me asking for them then I'll stop but it helps me so much.

Anyway, back to Andy. I explained why Silver is in the townie group a few posts later. Was kind of hoping somebody would ask me why she was there to be honest.

2. Incon is telling the truth about protecting Micky. This means either one Summer or Ubik voted for Timo despite being his teammate, and Silver is the other one.

Cutting off my nose to spite my face here, but I did not protect Micky. I attempted to protect Cam but my role doesn't prevent night kills.

3. Summer and Ubik are both mafia, yet they both voted for Timo. I’m not sure how likely this is. I think it’s plausible one of them may have jumped in to get underneath that vote train so they could say “look, I voted for Timo so I’m a townie.” But I’m not sure if they both would have done that, especially when the difference between 4 votes and 5 votes was the difference between Timo surviving or not surviving.

This is actually a good point. I hadn't considered that. I think I just really don't understand the voting mechanics in this game, which is why I was upset with Micky voting for you in day one. I thought having one vote on somebody would send in a kill anyway (which was the case in the only other deadline phase game I've played), but if we HAVE to hit the majority then mafia partners had to vote Timo, or it's literally just Silver and I. But I can semi-clear Silver based on my night one action result, and with that, can prove that Qyburn is/was in the game, or that she was jailed.

So I don't know.

[Andy92]

@Ubik and Inc, We covered this a while ago. You may have honestly forgotten, but it was my main advice from Day 1.

Micky’s probably just sour about last game lol. I wouldn’t completely eliminate the chance that him and Cameron are in on something together, but he’s been upset with me for a while.

Also, I’m just gonna toss this out there. With timed day phases, mafia members don’t really have an urgency to put themselves out on a line to make votes. They can pick people off in night phases and win that way. In past games, you eventually had to make a vote for someone. Don’t completely discredit people as mafia simply because they aren’t voting. It’s a good strategy when day phases are timed.

The only major way for us to eliminate mafia are through day phases. I guess I don’t mind not taking a shot at a specific person on Day 1, but it can’t happen again on Day 2 or we’ll start getting to the point where we’re just waiting to die in the night phases.

As we've now had the rules confirmed - this seems inarguable. Day 1 is its own thing because there's no info, but everyone should be voting on day 2 even if it's not required.

[Inconquerable]

Here’s the thoughts that went through my head yesterday:

No one is guaranteed to get voted out in this game in a day phase because we play with a time limit now. I thought it was probable that Timo’s two teammates were going to hold that vote up as long as possible in hopes that he would survive. Remember, 4 votes for Timo and he still would have lived because town didn’t reach a consensus. It would have been like Day 1 all over again.

Here’s the scanerios we have to work with from my point of view:

1. Incon and Silver are the two remaining mafia members as they were the only ones who refused to vote for Timo. Incon listing Silver with me and Micky in her townie group also backs this up.

2. Incon is telling the truth about protecting Micky. This means either one Summer or Ubik voted for Timo despite being his teammate, and Silver is the other one.

3. Summer and Ubik are both mafia, yet they both voted for Timo. I’m not sure how likely this is. I think it’s plausible one of them may have jumped in to get underneath that vote train so they could say “look, I voted for Timo so I’m a townie.” But I’m not sure if they both would have done that, especially with the difference between 4 votes and 5 votes was the difference between Timo surviving or not surviving.

That’s the way I see it now. Not 100% sure which way to vote. Silver not being around makes it extremely difficult but I’m likely to go in that direction if she doesn’t show up lol

The only person I trust in this game currently is Micky because he made a move that was proven to check out.

I'd not even thought of this - how is this not a dead giveaway? If I don't vote for Timo, he stays in. Was I trying to delay the conclusion on him? Not really, I was pretty resolute unless Silver got involved with a claim. I voted on him as I promised otherwise he might not have gone out.

Who doesn't vote for him? Even 5 votes might not have been enough if Littlefinger is playing. We needed 6 to be absolutely safe. Who didn't vote, despite me previously pointing this role out? Someone who might've known that Littlefinger wasn't making a difference, maybe?

No totally, this is mechanically all true. I realize it implicates me as well for not voting but I can't argue this.

[Inconquerable]

Ok going to just go for broke here and admit full out that I am requesting you all to delay the vote, or just do a deadline vote, if you're voting for either Silver or myself. Mechanically we're both in the wrong, but I am pretty sure I can clear Silver based on my night actions as I've said. I messaged her on Discord asking her to jump in with thoughts, hopefully she'll answer my question. (And apologies to Dissident if this is against the rules.)

If I'm the vote, let me post my theory on Ubik/Summer before I go. I could redo it while I'm at work but I've got all the notes at home, it'll be much easier for me there.

[zazisaspaz]

Okay, well now that Silver’s been cleared, that makes this super easy for me.
Andy and Ubik are mafia.
Which shall we vote for first?

<insert, “wait, but Summer could be mafia” here>
Fine, fine go ahead and vote me off, orrrr we could vote one the boys off, have Micky investigate me, see that I’m a townie, and win! YAY!

Deadline Vote: My Sweet and Clever Andy

[zazisaspaz]

Whoops, Inky just posted! Okay, I can switch my vote to Ubik if you’d like!

[Ubik]

@Ubik and Inc, We covered this a while ago. You may have honestly forgotten, but it was my main advice from Day 1.

Micky’s probably just sour about last game lol. I wouldn’t completely eliminate the chance that him and Cameron are in on something together, but he’s been upset with me for a while.

Also, I’m just gonna toss this out there. With timed day phases, mafia members don’t really have an urgency to put themselves out on a line to make votes. They can pick people off in night phases and win that way. In past games, you eventually had to make a vote for someone. Don’t completely discredit people as mafia simply because they aren’t voting. It’s a good strategy when day phases are timed.

The only major way for us to eliminate mafia are through day phases. I guess I don’t mind not taking a shot at a specific person on Day 1, but it can’t happen again on Day 2 or we’ll start getting to the point where we’re just waiting to die in the night phases.

As we've now had the rules confirmed - this seems inarguable. Day 1 is its own thing because there's no info, but everyone should be voting on day 2 even if it's not required.

I'm agreeing with you here!

[Micky]

Okay, well now that Silver’s been cleared, that makes this super easy for me.
Andy and Ubik are mafia.
Which shall we vote for first?

<insert, “wait, but Summer could be mafia” here>
Fine, fine go ahead and vote me off, orrrr we could vote one the boys off, have Micky investigate me, see that I’m a townie, and win! YAY!

Deadline Vote: My Sweet and Clever Andy

Don’t think I’m gonna live through night phase to investigate anyone

[Andy92]

Ubik, I’m just trying to get a clear picture after you said, “ I'd not even thought of this - how is this not a dead giveaway?”

I know you agree with me, I was just surprised for you to say you hadn’t thought of it given that we had discussed it prior. That’s all I was questioning.

[Inconquerable]

Um... okay, but I’m pretty sure you’re just going to think I’m lying and that won’t get us anywhere hahaha:
Inky’s claiming to be Samwell and has claimed actions to back it up. So far there’s no reason to doubt her claims.

@Inky: I can’t really explain hunches. They’re just feelings and that’s why they go back and forth. I don’t really trust anyone of you except Micky so of course I’m going to be unsure of everyone. As you mentioned before, you’re looking for patterns and wanting to have a spreadsheet of our actions. This means that a bad hunch can incriminate me and me trying to explain my hunches with a weak and/or lengthy post isn’t going to help me out very much. That’s just not how I roll. I like to be to the point, no fluff, no wasting time with explanations that aren’t going to move the game forward. If people don’t see what I see, or feel what I feel, then there’s no need to try and explain it when I myself am not even 90% sure of a hunch. If it’s a strong feeling, then I would take the time to explain. (Except now I’m writing all this because I didn’t respond to the first time you brought it up because I figured it was a waste of time and this doesn’t help the game in my eyes, but it seems to be important to you so I hope this made an ounce of sense hahaha it probably didn't though)

No I appreciate you explaining this to me. The more we post the better we understand each other. I get hunches and that's cool, I just like to have more concrete information. And by the way, the spreadsheet of reads wasn't ever going to be a permanent tool! I wanted to get everyone's reads on one page so we can see what everybody was thinking at that time. I blew my reads list up as soon as Timo flipped mafia, I can't hold anybody to their reads for the entire game. Reads are flexible! I'd be a huge hypocrite for even trying to do that.

Okay, well now that Silver’s been cleared, that makes this super easy for me.
Andy and Ubik are mafia.
Which shall we vote for first?

<insert, “wait, but Summer could be mafia” here>
Fine, fine go ahead and vote me off, orrrr we could vote one the boys off, have Micky investigate me, see that I’m a townie, and win! YAY!

Deadline Vote: My Sweet and Clever Andy

Well, Silver is only semi-cleared as long as we don't hear from her. I'm only clear if you actually believe what I'm saying.

I can't say I see the vote on Andy truth be told except... process of elimination? Can you explain why Andy over Ubik here? Or is it just either or doesn't really matter which? As per the below:

Whoops, Inky just posted! Okay, I can switch my vote to Ubik if you’d like!

No vote your own way! Far be it for me to tell somebody what to do.

[Andy92]

Honestly if you think I’m mafia after all this game then, lol