SURVIVOR MAFIA - GAME OVER!!!

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zazthespaz
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Re: it's worth 2 in the bush.

Post by zazthespaz »

Lotha wrote:
zazthespaz wrote:So, to summarize in terms Lotha will appreciate:

There's a 3/7 chance that if chosen at random, we pick a mafia.
There's a 3/7 chance that if chosen at random, we pick a townie.
There's a 1/7 chance that if chosen at random, we pick the clockmaker.
There's a 4/7 chance that if chosen at random, we pick a malicious player (mafia or clockmaker).
There's a 1/2,401 chance that if all 4 of us randomly choose, we choose the same person.
There's a 3/16,807 chance that that person is mafia. 4/16,807 they're malicious.
There's a 99/100 chance that I did my math wrong.
Hahahahah sheesh I'd vote you over this if you weren't already dead.
;)
Inconquerable wrote:
zazthespaz wrote: So what happens if we target the Clockmaker? Just moves into Day 3 like nothing happened?
Yep, because of the bulletproof vest.
Does the clockmaker lose the bulletproof vest if we vote for him?

My mind is going in a million different directions around this right now, I have 3 TABN tabs open, one spreadsheet, and I'm about to go to Braingle.com to complete the insanity :lol It all hinges on the answer to this question. I'm assuming the answer is "yes", but we know what they say about "assuming."

**Side note: I will be away most of tomorrow driving to Summer's where I will formally interrogate her over her role so I probably won't be available until late in the day (24-28 hours from this post) so if we can seal a tribal council vote before I leave in 12 hours, that'd be great. For now, my vote remains Andy until I say otherwise.
anguyen92 wrote:
Oh well. Deal with it.
gbruin wrote:
Go reread what zaz says

MaraCarr
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Re: 1/1 chance that Lotha hates my guts right now.

Post by MaraCarr »

zazthespaz wrote:There's a 99/100 chance that I did my math wrong.

I was all into the math until the last figure. :headscratch

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Inconquerable
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Re: Stop making a me out of ass and u!

Post by Inconquerable »

zazthespaz wrote:
Inconquerable wrote:
zazthespaz wrote: So what happens if we target the Clockmaker? Just moves into Day 3 like nothing happened?
Yep, because of the bulletproof vest.
Does the clockmaker lose the bulletproof vest if we vote for him?

My mind is going in a million different directions around this right now, I have 3 TABN tabs open, one spreadsheet, and I'm about to go to Braingle.com to complete the insanity :lol It all hinges on the answer to this question. I'm assuming the answer is "yes", but we know what they say about "assuming."

**Side note: I will be away most of tomorrow driving to Summer's where I will formally interrogate her over her role so I probably won't be available until late in the day (24-28 hours from this post) so if we can seal a tribal council vote before I leave in 12 hours, that'd be great. For now, my vote remains Andy until I say otherwise.
I hadn't thought of that, but I think it's fair. So yes The Clockmaker will lose the bulletproof vest if voted for in Tribal Council. For consistency's sake the clock will go down to 9:00.
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zazthespaz
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Re: What's this thing in my skull that's pounding?

Post by zazthespaz »

Inconquerable wrote: So yes The Clockmaker will lose the bulletproof vest if voted for in Tribal Council. For consistency's sake the clock will go down to 9:00.
Thank you!

Then I stick with my vote for Andy assuming he's the clockmaker.

If he doesn't die, then he's the clockmaker. It makes sense for everyone to vote for him to finish him off in the subsequent day phase as he is a threat to all.

This will bring us to night 3 - it will be 3 v 3 mafia v townies. Mafia have a 2/3 chance of choosing someone who doesn't die right away (adrenaline junkie, retired marine). There's a decent chance they choose the Island Shaman though and then it will be 3 v 2 in day 4 meaning Mafia win. If they choose the junkie or marine, we do a tribal council on day 4, but with no new info.

Alternatively, we could vote for Andy, remove his vest, and then Townies vote for someone they think is Mafia. This leaves Mafia to have to kill Andy in the night phase to eliminate a renegade team. The mafia is Andy's (clockmaker's) greatest threat as they are the only ones who can kill him outside of a vote so it's in their best interest to remove each other as soon as possible, thus, buying the townies some time.

I might be overthinking this. This could be the hardest I've thought in months :lol I'm sticking with my vote for Andy under the assumption that:
1) He's the clockmaker
2) Townies will not vote for him in the subsequent day phase and will do their best to vote for a mafia member
anguyen92 wrote:
Oh well. Deal with it.
gbruin wrote:
Go reread what zaz says

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Ubik
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by Ubik »

I'm just gonna wait and see what Andy thinks about this rule change.
For all of the hope that it brings...

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AB4Lyfe
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by AB4Lyfe »

Ubik - I jailed Lotha last night. So if she is Mafia, she at least was NOT the one who sent in the order to kill me.
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Andy92
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by Andy92 »

Ubik wrote:I'm just gonna wait and see what Andy thinks about this rule change.
Doesn’t really bother me to be honest. If your main goal is to make sure I don’t win then you should probably vote for me, remove my vest and get rid of me in Day 3 lol. If your main goal is to help the townies win against the mafia then I’d recommend looking elsewhere.

For what it’s worth. I revealed my role quickly once the clock hit 10:00 assuming the vest couldn’t be knocked off me. Guess I was wrong. :D
anguyen92 wrote:Oh well. Deal with it.

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Ubik
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Re: What's this thing in my skull that's pounding?

Post by Ubik »

Thanks AB4 - not sure why I thought it would help but good to know anyway :lol
zazthespaz wrote: I might be overthinking this. This could be the hardest I've thought in months :lol I'm sticking with my vote for Andy under the assumption that:
1) He's the clockmaker
2) Townies will not vote for him in the subsequent day phase and will do their best to vote for a mafia member
I basically agree with this. We have to vote Andy now because otherwise he wins anyway. But the remaining players can't vote him off in the day phase because that more or less guarantees a mafia win (Retired Marine is only invulnerable to the Clockmaker). So the townies have to do their best to pick a mafia player out.

After that, it gets confusing. The mafia probably want to take out the Clockmaker with their night kill as he both shortens the game and threatens their own. What's unclear is - given he's also got a night kill, does his kill still count if he's also targeted? That, along with the Adrenaline Junkie's extra day and potential further Tribal Councils, make the possibilities after that pretty hard to track. It looks really difficult for the town to win, anyway, but better than I thought at the end of the last round at least. All that to say:

Vote: Andy

We should probably also state our main suspicions for mafia to help townies out in the next phase - as mentioned earlier, mine are (in order) The Dissident, Lotha and Summer. Not only as punishment for killing me, also because it makes sense for a mafia team to have been wary of the Clockmaker as a threat, and they piled on quick. Mara and Silver are wildcards but they at least held back on that front.
For all of the hope that it brings...

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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by AB4Lyfe »

Vote: Andy
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Andy92
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by Andy92 »

Not sure if I’m missing something at this point but I’ll be around on Day 3 once this vest gets blown off. I can just follow the mafia’s lead and vote out a townie to give them the win and spite you all. :D

You’ve got me in a corner so if I can’t win, your team won’t either.
anguyen92 wrote:Oh well. Deal with it.

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zazthespaz
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Re: thank you, Baldur’s Gate!

Post by zazthespaz »

Andy92 wrote:Not sure if I’m missing something at this point but I’ll be around on Day 3 once this vest gets blown off. I can just follow the mafia’s lead and vote out a townie to give them the win and spite you all. :D

You’ve got me in a corner so if I can’t win, your team won’t either.
Oh yeah. Forgot Andy is a Chaotic Evil.
anguyen92 wrote:
Oh well. Deal with it.
gbruin wrote:
Go reread what zaz says

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Re: What's this thing in my skull that's pounding?

Post by MaraCarr »

zazthespaz wrote:
Inconquerable wrote: So yes The Clockmaker will lose the bulletproof vest if voted for in Tribal Council. For consistency's sake the clock will go down to 9:00.
Thank you!

Then I stick with my vote for Andy assuming he's the clockmaker.

If he doesn't die, then he's the clockmaker. It makes sense for everyone to vote for him to finish him off in the subsequent day phase as he is a threat to all.

This will bring us to night 3 - it will be 3 v 3 mafia v townies. Mafia have a 2/3 chance of choosing someone who doesn't die right away (adrenaline junkie, retired marine). There's a decent chance they choose the Island Shaman though and then it will be 3 v 2 in day 4 meaning Mafia win. If they choose the junkie or marine, we do a tribal council on day 4, but with no new info.

Alternatively, we could vote for Andy, remove his vest, and then Townies vote for someone they think is Mafia. This leaves Mafia to have to kill Andy in the night phase to eliminate a renegade team. The mafia is Andy's (clockmaker's) greatest threat as they are the only ones who can kill him outside of a vote so it's in their best interest to remove each other as soon as possible, thus, buying the townies some time.

I might be overthinking this. This could be the hardest I've thought in months :lol I'm sticking with my vote for Andy under the assumption that:
1) He's the clockmaker
2) Townies will not vote for him in the subsequent day phase and will do their best to vote for a mafia member
Great thoughts!!!
This is making me think so much my head hurts and I’m remembering that awful Statistics class I took in college. I did make a “B“ but I’m a lot rusty! Got to kick the dust off!

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zazthespaz
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Re: That’s also what I said to my math teacher at the start of every lesson

Post by zazthespaz »

MaraCarr wrote:
zazthespaz wrote:
Inconquerable wrote: So yes The Clockmaker will lose the bulletproof vest if voted for in Tribal Council. For consistency's sake the clock will go down to 9:00.
Thank you!

Then I stick with my vote for Andy assuming he's the clockmaker.

If he doesn't die, then he's the clockmaker. It makes sense for everyone to vote for him to finish him off in the subsequent day phase as he is a threat to all.

This will bring us to night 3 - it will be 3 v 3 mafia v townies. Mafia have a 2/3 chance of choosing someone who doesn't die right away (adrenaline junkie, retired marine). There's a decent chance they choose the Island Shaman though and then it will be 3 v 2 in day 4 meaning Mafia win. If they choose the junkie or marine, we do a tribal council on day 4, but with no new info.

Alternatively, we could vote for Andy, remove his vest, and then Townies vote for someone they think is Mafia. This leaves Mafia to have to kill Andy in the night phase to eliminate a renegade team. The mafia is Andy's (clockmaker's) greatest threat as they are the only ones who can kill him outside of a vote so it's in their best interest to remove each other as soon as possible, thus, buying the townies some time.

I might be overthinking this. This could be the hardest I've thought in months :lol I'm sticking with my vote for Andy under the assumption that:
1) He's the clockmaker
2) Townies will not vote for him in the subsequent day phase and will do their best to vote for a mafia member
Great thoughts!!!
This is making me think so much my head hurts and I’m remembering that awful Statistics class I took in college. I did make a “B“ but I’m a lot rusty! Got to kick the dust off!
Thank you!

I think we all kicked the dust off of our statistics knowledge and none of us are better off for it :lol Don’t do it! It’s not worth it!
anguyen92 wrote:
Oh well. Deal with it.
gbruin wrote:
Go reread what zaz says

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SHEAKENBAKEN
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by SHEAKENBAKEN »

Whats going on here who should I vote for :eek

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AB4Lyfe
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by AB4Lyfe »

Andy92 wrote:Not sure if I’m missing something at this point but I’ll be around on Day 3 once this vest gets blown off. I can just follow the mafia’s lead and vote out a townie to give them the win and spite you all. :D

You’ve got me in a corner so if I can’t win, your team won’t either.
True, the Mafia can coordinate and vote out a townie along with you. However, the Mafia can’t WIN if they do that. If the Mafia want to actually win the game, Andy needs to die.
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Silver
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by Silver »

This game....

Even including the champs game, this is the craziest most wild ride of a game I've ever played. This is AMAZING.

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Still salty

Post by Lotha »

Andy92 wrote:
For what it’s worth. I revealed my role quickly once the clock hit 10:00 assuming the vest couldn’t be knocked off me. Guess I was wrong. :D
Sucks for you, mate. Guess you got smug way too soon.
Photobucket is responsible for my lack of signature today.

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Lotha
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by Lotha »

Ugh I was trying to think through some possibilities but it's way too early. I'll come back when I'm not still half-drooling.
Photobucket is responsible for my lack of signature today.

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Andy92
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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by Andy92 »

AB4Lyfe wrote:
Andy92 wrote:Not sure if I’m missing something at this point but I’ll be around on Day 3 once this vest gets blown off. I can just follow the mafia’s lead and vote out a townie to give them the win and spite you all. :D

You’ve got me in a corner so if I can’t win, your team won’t either.
True, the Mafia can coordinate and vote out a townie along with you. However, the Mafia can’t WIN if they do that. If the Mafia want to actually win the game, Andy needs to die.
The Clockmaker’s win is independent from the Mafia winning. If I help them kill townies we both win. :D

If you really want to give the townies a chance, knocking off my vest doesn’t cut it. That leaves 3 mafia alive in Day 3. Townies just will not have the firepower to eliminate one of them via vote without my help, and I won’t do it. Now, they could all vote for me since my vest is knocked off, but in that scenario, we progress to Night 3 where the mafia can pick any townie they want to kill. Game over, mafia wins 3-2.

Alternatively, you guys could target an actual mafia member right now. Summer and Lotha are the ones I’ve been looking at the most, and their partner is a crapshoot between Mara/Dissident/Silver. All 3 have posted very little, but one of them has to be mafia at this point because we know Micky is the Adrenaline Junkie.

I’m trying to be as clear as I can with this explanation. Knocking my vest off does not get the townies a win. I’m going to bed now but I’ll be around tomorrow if anyone wants to discuss more.
anguyen92 wrote:Oh well. Deal with it.

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Re: SURVIVOR MAFIA - TRIBAL COUNCIL PHASE ONE!!

Post by AB4Lyfe »

Andy92 wrote:
AB4Lyfe wrote:
Andy92 wrote:Not sure if I’m missing something at this point but I’ll be around on Day 3 once this vest gets blown off. I can just follow the mafia’s lead and vote out a townie to give them the win and spite you all. :D

You’ve got me in a corner so if I can’t win, your team won’t either.
True, the Mafia can coordinate and vote out a townie along with you. However, the Mafia can’t WIN if they do that. If the Mafia want to actually win the game, Andy needs to die.
The Clockmaker’s win is independent from the Mafia winning. If I help them kill townies we both win. :D

If you really want to give the townies a chance, knocking off my vest doesn’t cut it. That leaves 3 mafia alive in Day 3. Townies just will not have the firepower to eliminate one of them via vote without my help, and I won’t do it. Now, they could all vote for me since my vest is knocked off, but in that scenario, we progress to Night 3 where the mafia can pick any townie they want to kill. Game over, mafia wins 3-2.

Alternatively, you guys could target an actual mafia member right now. Summer and Lotha are the ones I’ve been looking at the most, and their partner is a crapshoot between Mara/Dissident/Silver. All 3 have posted very little, but one of them has to be mafia at this point because we know Micky is the Adrenaline Junkie.

I’m trying to be as clear as I can with this explanation. Knocking my vest off does not get the townies a win. I’m going to bed now but I’ll be around tomorrow if anyone wants to discuss more.
Yes, the Mafia would easily beat the townies in this scenario, if the Mafia voted against a townie in Day 3 instead of voting for you. But, if you win, then the Mafia would still get second place. Why settle for second place when you can get win?

Dear Mafia, if you want to beat the townies, then you do you boo boo. But you’ll still be Andy’s bitch.
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