You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

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Re: Wanker-Gate.

Postby Inconquerable » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:41 pm

Ok deep dive on Lotha’s posts finally. I’m just going to look at her posts in isolation (and whatever she may have quoted), and obviously not read alignment into them because she’s a confirmed townie. She talked about Andy quite a bit but it was jokey. I don’t really get the feeling from her posts that she suspected him. The vote for Summer was randomized, but she didn’t get out of it what she wanted, “other for some defensiveness.” She kept the vote, may or may not be important. I’m taking this suspicion with a grain of salt, because she was set on the no vote for the day, and she’s not here to tell us if she kept the vote because she was still suspicious, or because she just didn’t need to change it.

IF there is a case to be made against Cam as the doctor… I think the best candidate for the actual doctor might be Lotha. See this:

”Where's this Easter egg I must see it.”

But more importantly…

THIS.

At first glance, this looks like a playful jab at Andy. If you read further into it, when is the last time you saw something really weird happen in a Mafia game, and Lotha reacts this calmly to it? Cam hints at his role and draws attention to the hints, and Andy outright outs Cam’s role. Lotha wouldn’t be this calm about it… unless she had to be because she didn’t want HER role revealed. If she had come into the thread and voted for Cam right off the bat, mafia would have known that she was the doctor.

Wanker-gate is her last post in the game. She didn’t reveal much in the way of reads, I do wish I had asked her more questions about what she thought. But if I can take anything away from this, she maybe(?) had slight suspicion on Summer for being defensive, and IF Cam isn’t the doctor, it could have been her. Long story short… I don’t know if I learned that much from her posts because she was secretive.

So who benefits from Lotha dying? I guess… Summer so there’s no potential for a future war there? But that’s a stretch. I think probably the easiest reason that Lotha was picked was because she’s a threat to the mafia team. She was probably the biggest threat at the time, quite a few people had posted saying that they felt that she was a townie. Getting rid of a widely town read player who hasn’t posted a lot of suspicions makes sense. Here are possible reasons why others weren’t killed (these assume that everybody is town, work with me) in order of the player list on page one:

Me: To set up the back and forth with Cam in day two.
Ubik: I… don’t know. He’s a big threat as a townie. He had a few people saying how townie he felt, I was iffy on him but… yeah I don’t know… Could just be the obvious: only one person can be killed by mafia at night, but I’d like a more solid reason here.
Andy: Already had votes cast against him, and it’s better to keep him in the game to keep the air of suspicion. And he’s part of the stuff between Cam and I.
Micky: I had suspected that he was mafia, might as well keep him in if he’s a townie. He’s a perfect mis-kill.
Silver: I thought she had an outside chance of being killed because she would give us the least amount of information to go on given that she had only posted twice. Maybe that’s a point against her.
Cam: See point about me above. Probably my biggest reason for not voting for him anymore.
Summer: Maybe because they knew that she was going to go to bat for Cam and would help set up a mis-kill? This feels… less concrete than others?

Based on the above, I might be tempted to think Ubik/Silver/Summer, but I think they have each posted things that make me think they couldn’t be a team, outside of Ubik/Silver, but… I don’t know about that. Silver feels like an easy option because she hasn’t been around much. I feel like if it is her, she can wait? Let’s maybe clear somebody else up first? I think I could go with Micky today or, and this is a big turnaround from my reads list I know, Summer. Micky could be mis-kill bait too though.
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Seriously?

Postby Andy92 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:53 pm

Inconquerable wrote:Wanker-gate is her last post in the game.

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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Ubik » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:58 pm

Andy92 wrote:I read Micky’s points about Timo, and honestly Timo is playing like he always does. I was convinced he was mafia a couple games ago when he played almost exactly the same way, and he was town. He could just be really good at keeping his roles concealed, but for now I don’t really look at him as a threat.

I could go one of two ways with my line of thinking here. My gut tells me Cam is acting pretty suspicious this entire time, but for that to be the case, someone else would have to be the real doctor. He may just be trying to draw that player out. I know the lemon cake reference wasn’t blatant, but in a lobby full of some GoT nerds it wasn’t going to go unnoticed, especially when he kept highlighting it with HEY GUYS I POSTED AN EASTER EGG HINT.

The other option is to ask why Incon is being so up front and taking command the way she is. She could be trying to steer us all a certain way but to be honest, I think she’s just trying to help the other townies like I am. If I had a gut feeling I might suspect Cam/Micky as two teammates, but I don’t know who the real doctor would be in that scenario.

Still looking at you too, Silver. :shifty

I've been going through this in my mind today as it seems the obvious question - because zaz's move only makes sense as mafia if it's to draw the doctor out. There's only one other candidate as far as I can see based on today's conversation, and that's Lotha herself. I'm with you on Occam's Razor and you have to make certain assumptions for it to fit, but I'm also aware that Occam's Razor and this game don't necessarily go well together (eg Purgatory where we ruled out (well, Lotha didn't rule it out) the idea on an early bussing, or the last game where we took your claim as Clockmaker at face value). At this point zaz is either the doctor or mafia, and as far as I can see, at this point the doctor is either zaz or Lotha. (Unless Silver makes an entrance soon with a particular grievance with zaz.)

I liked Timo's point in zaz's favour when he said that saying he protected Lotha is kind of pointless overkill, I hadn't considered it that way, but at the same time I can also see that he'd have wanted to go all in in the morning to move attention away from his survival.

If we can clear zaz as the doctor, that's great because it narrows the field and people with roles can do what they can to protect him. But at the same time, if Lotha was the doctor and isn't around to counter claim, we're in a really bad spot if we pass up on the person who has, on the face of it, done the most suspicious thing, particularly with the doctor no longer around to help.

Does aaaany of this make sense, because I've been reading so many in depth multi-quotes that I might just have confused myself. Interested to hear Inc's view on this as well because she was very keen this morning but has since backed off a little.

EDIT - FFS have literally just seen Inc has posted this exact idea but more in depth.
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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby The Dissident » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:03 pm

Yes someone who gets jailed would be told as much. All roles will recieve flavour text pertaining to what happened to them during the night phase. Although it may not be entirely clear as to what the exact effect on them is.

Jailing is a bit more difficult to hide what it is.

And yes I can get a vote tally from the previous day but it will only be a final tally not full list of who voted who. Give me a little bit and i can post it. Do you still want it if thats the case?

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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Andy92 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:01 pm

Tomorrow will be an important day because townies need to vote someone out to have even a chance at winning. We may swing and miss but it’s better than not swinging at all, waiting to die.

There’s 8 people left and we need 5 of us to get to a consensus decision. Since there’s 3 mafia out there then we need to be active in casting our votes in the same direction.

I’m going with my strongest gut feeling here and tossing my vote out. If anyone has a different idea they’d rather go for, feel free to persuade me, but we need to get people on the same page to have a chance.

DEADLINE VOTE: MICKY
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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Micky » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:20 pm

Andy92 wrote:Tomorrow will be an important day because townies need to vote someone out to have even a chance at winning. We may swing and miss but it’s better than not swinging at all, waiting to die.

There’s 8 people left and we need 5 of us to get to a consensus decision. Since there’s 3 mafia out there then we need to be active in casting our votes in the same direction.

I’m going with my strongest gut feeling here and tossing my vote out. If anyone has a different idea they’d rather go for, feel free to persuade me, but we need to get people on the same page to have a chance.

DEADLINE VOTE: MICKY


Good luck wasting a vote

I investigated Timo and he’s guilty.
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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Andy92 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:23 pm

^Well that’s certainly an interesting revelation...

I’ll leave some time for everyone to read and ponder over that one. The cop is guaranteed to be in the game, so hopefully we can get to the bottom of things one way or another.

At this point, I’d probably say wait to see if anyone else claims the cop role. If they don’t, would probably be best to vote for Timo.

If someone else does claim it, we gotta figure out who’s lying then. :D
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Re: Operation: Mindmeld.

Postby Inconquerable » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:19 pm

Ubik wrote:
Andy92 wrote:I read Micky’s points about Timo, and honestly Timo is playing like he always does. I was convinced he was mafia a couple games ago when he played almost exactly the same way, and he was town. He could just be really good at keeping his roles concealed, but for now I don’t really look at him as a threat.

I could go one of two ways with my line of thinking here. My gut tells me Cam is acting pretty suspicious this entire time, but for that to be the case, someone else would have to be the real doctor. He may just be trying to draw that player out. I know the lemon cake reference wasn’t blatant, but in a lobby full of some GoT nerds it wasn’t going to go unnoticed, especially when he kept highlighting it with HEY GUYS I POSTED AN EASTER EGG HINT.

The other option is to ask why Incon is being so up front and taking command the way she is. She could be trying to steer us all a certain way but to be honest, I think she’s just trying to help the other townies like I am. If I had a gut feeling I might suspect Cam/Micky as two teammates, but I don’t know who the real doctor would be in that scenario.

Still looking at you too, Silver. :shifty

I've been going through this in my mind today as it seems the obvious question - because zaz's move only makes sense as mafia if it's to draw the doctor out. There's only one other candidate as far as I can see based on today's conversation, and that's Lotha herself. I'm with you on Occam's Razor and you have to make certain assumptions for it to fit, but I'm also aware that Occam's Razor and this game don't necessarily go well together (eg Purgatory where we ruled out (well, Lotha didn't rule it out) the idea on an early bussing, or the last game where we took your claim as Clockmaker at face value). At this point zaz is either the doctor or mafia, and as far as I can see, at this point the doctor is either zaz or Lotha. (Unless Silver makes an entrance soon with a particular grievance with zaz.)

I liked Timo's point in zaz's favour when he said that saying he protected Lotha is kind of pointless overkill, I hadn't considered it that way, but at the same time I can also see that he'd have wanted to go all in in the morning to move attention away from his survival.

If we can clear zaz as the doctor, that's great because it narrows the field and people with roles can do what they can to protect him. But at the same time, if Lotha was the doctor and isn't around to counter claim, we're in a really bad spot if we pass up on the person who has, on the face of it, done the most suspicious thing, particularly with the doctor no longer around to help.

Does aaaany of this make sense, because I've been reading so many in depth multi-quotes that I might just have confused myself. Interested to hear Inc's view on this as well because she was very keen this morning but has since backed off a little.

EDIT - FFS have literally just seen Inc has posted this exact idea but more in depth.


Hahah it happens re: the edit. I'm confident that I won't be voting Cam's way this day phase, especially given...

The Dissident wrote:Yes someone who gets jailed would be told as much. All roles will recieve flavour text pertaining to what happened to them during the night phase. Although it may not be entirely clear as to what the exact effect on them is.

Jailing is a bit more difficult to hide what it is.

And yes I can get a vote tally from the previous day but it will only be a final tally not full list of who voted who. Give me a little bit and i can post it. Do you still want it if thats the case?


I mean there are possibilities here... but I don't think I want to go there. Probably just going to go with Cam is the doctor and resign myself to the fact that I've severely wasted my time working on proving otherwise.

EDIT: @Dissident sorry meant to mention this and don't want to make a new post about it. The vote count probably won't be necessary, but thank you anyway!
Last edited by Inconquerable on Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Ubik » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:27 pm

Gah I just spent an hour writing out my thoughts for midway through the day and now Micky's post has basically upended it all. Gonna have to wait for Timo's response tomorrow to reasses, I had him third at the time and Micky bottom. I will say I thought whilst reading that Timo's response was good and that a lot of Micky's points seemed nitpicky, but a cop claim is a little different. So we could have two zaz situations to choose between at the end of the day.

Anyway, here's the rest:

Andy is someone I'm currently, to my surprise, feeling pretty good about. I think he's been pretty calm and helpful today, even though I started a little more concerned based on how I was feeling about the night kill and that I might've mis-interpreted it last night. But I think his initial post was most persuasive, and as mafia he'd probably just have made the kill. There is the counter to that that he's come out of today looking better for it, but for the purposes of today, I'm okay with him.

Summer has posted less frequently today, and I've still got that Purgatory game in my mind, but the Lotha kill feels way too on the nose for her to be mafia. Might be a double bluff but right now, I'm not taking it. Being so sure on zaz is something to watch out for, because I'm not, but it feels like a risk that she doesn't need to take as mafia. If she's mafia and he's mafia, him being killed and shown as mafia basically brings her down with him. If she's mafia and he's not, there doesn't feel a great need to be so sure on it, just let it play out.

Inc started out feeling very town to me, she was being proactive and I like that a lot, pushing people into making commitments that can be tested as time goes on. I thought her strategy to look out for town players was smart. But there's been a few things that have knocked my confidence. The misquote of me was the first one, which seemed kind of petty but goes against my rule that if you're town, you don't mislead on things other people say. She did quickly recant which goes in her favour. The vote based on zaz claiming to be jailed also stuck out to me, because it was the kind of thing you note and ask for a clarification on, rather than use to accuse. I'd be very hesitant to vote for her despite putting her here, because if she's town she's a big asset that's pushing things on, and I've not seen enough to worry me that I'd risk losing that.

zaz is kind of level pegging with Inc for me. Him being town relies on him having made an error of judgement that put the town in jeopardy on day 1, potentially neutering him as doctor for the rest of the game, and that seems very unlike him. But it's certainly plausible and not being killed overnight doesn't necessarily imply guilt, as there were decent reasons for it not to have happened from either a town perspective or a mafia perspective. As I said before I think either he or Lotha are the doctor, and without knowing her role we also can't be sure on his. He was amazingly convincing as mafia in Purgatory, to the extent I could see him pulling off a move to out the doctor even with all the heat it would bring, and that's shown by the fact I'm still on the fence.

Silver just hasn't posted much so I can't justify being higher than this point. She sailed through the last game without much suspicion and I think the longer this one goes on, the more noticeable it gets. I'd probably be willing to vote for her but I'm at the same time worried at the prospect going for someone we don't have much of a read on, given the numbers involved across the teams.

That isn't a very town to very mafia gradient, it's just the list of who's bothered me the least to who's bothered me the most.
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Re: Will respond to Micky shortly!

Postby Inconquerable » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:28 pm

Inconquerable wrote:Ok deep dive on Lotha’s posts finally. I’m just going to look at her posts in isolation (and whatever she may have quoted), and obviously not read alignment into them because she’s a confirmed townie. She talked about Andy quite a bit but it was jokey. I don’t really get the feeling from her posts that she suspected him. The vote for Summer was randomized, but she didn’t get out of it what she wanted, “other for some defensiveness.” She kept the vote, may or may not be important. I’m taking this suspicion with a grain of salt, because she was set on the no vote for the day, and she’s not here to tell us if she kept the vote because she was still suspicious, or because she just didn’t need to change it.

IF there is a case to be made against Cam as the doctor… I think the best candidate for the actual doctor might be Lotha. See this:

”Where's this Easter egg I must see it.”

But more importantly…

THIS.

At first glance, this looks like a playful jab at Andy. If you read further into it, when is the last time you saw something really weird happen in a Mafia game, and Lotha reacts this calmly to it? Cam hints at his role and draws attention to the hints, and Andy outright outs Cam’s role. Lotha wouldn’t be this calm about it… unless she had to be because she didn’t want HER role revealed. If she had come into the thread and voted for Cam right off the bat, mafia would have known that she was the doctor.

Wanker-gate is her last post in the game. She didn’t reveal much in the way of reads, I do wish I had asked her more questions about what she thought. But if I can take anything away from this, she maybe(?) had slight suspicion on Summer for being defensive, and IF Cam isn’t the doctor, it could have been her. Long story short… I don’t know if I learned that much from her posts because she was secretive.

So who benefits from Lotha dying? I guess… Summer so there’s no potential for a future war there? But that’s a stretch. I think probably the easiest reason that Lotha was picked was because she’s a threat to the mafia team. She was probably the biggest threat at the time, quite a few people had posted saying that they felt that she was a townie. Getting rid of a widely town read player who hasn’t posted a lot of suspicions makes sense. Here are possible reasons why others weren’t killed (these assume that everybody is town, work with me) in order of the player list on page one:

Me: To set up the back and forth with Cam in day two.
Ubik: I… don’t know. He’s a big threat as a townie. He had a few people saying how townie he felt, I was iffy on him but… yeah I don’t know… Could just be the obvious: only one person can be killed by mafia at night, but I’d like a more solid reason here.
Andy: Already had votes cast against him, and it’s better to keep him in the game to keep the air of suspicion. And he’s part of the stuff between Cam and I.
Micky: I had suspected that he was mafia, might as well keep him in if he’s a townie. He’s a perfect mis-kill.
Silver: I thought she had an outside chance of being killed because she would give us the least amount of information to go on given that she had only posted twice. Maybe that’s a point against her.
Cam: See point about me above. Probably my biggest reason for not voting for him anymore.
Summer: Maybe because they knew that she was going to go to bat for Cam and would help set up a mis-kill? This feels… less concrete than others?

Based on the above, I might be tempted to think Ubik/Silver/Summer, but I think they have each posted things that make me think they couldn’t be a team, outside of Ubik/Silver, but… I don’t know about that. Silver feels like an easy option because she hasn’t been around much. I feel like if it is her, she can wait? Let’s maybe clear somebody else up first? I think I could go with Micky today or, and this is a big turnaround from my reads list I know, Summer. Micky could be mis-kill bait too though.


Sorry just looking back in my notes and realizing I don't have Timo in my list above. Sorry, Timo I don't know what happened there! Possible reasons for killing Timo are a little scarce to me at the moment. His suspicions in day one were Micky, Silver, and Cam kind of. Given what we just found out from Micky, who does he fit with, assuming Micky isn't lying? Need to think on this.
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Re: Maybe it's a tone read.

Postby Inconquerable » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:39 pm

Timotheus wrote:It's more or less ordered. It would be either Silver or Micky. It's kind of tied between them. I think I'd selfishly go with Micky, because he suspect's me.

About teams, I don't know. I think all of them could theoretically be in a team together.

I guess it's a good hunch from you that Micky and zaz aren't in a team together, but I'm not fully convinced that's the case.

Silver is very quiet, and could be in a mafia team with anybody for that reason.


Before I get to Micky, I need to ask some questions here. I've been sitting on this post for a while not really sure what to make of it, because I don't really think it jives with me, but I'm having trouble pinpointing why? Like you say you would go with Micky just because he cased you, that's... just revenge voting, which is less than ideal? But then if you're that torn I guess something like that could come into play.

But the teams stuff is pretty noncommittal. I'm not asking for you to be like "this is the team for all of these reasons," but this is... wishy washy? Like "this could be it, but I'm not going to say that's what I think," almost in a hey here's this thing but I have an out if it doesn't work.

I should call Andy out on this as well (so, Andy please read and respond!), but the Silver accusation is just too easy. I did call Ubik out earlier for suspecting the less active ones on day one, and I think it still holds true. And I don't think Silver actually could be teamed with anyone. For example, I'm pretty well convinced that she's not on a team with Summer for reasons I've given already. A Silver vote just feels easy.

I don't know if this helps me or not, maybe Timo's response will? But his post just feels really off.
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Re: That's gotta be at least $11

Postby zazthespaz » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:45 pm

Micky wrote:I investigated Timo and he’s guilty.

Holy crap.
Inconquerable wrote:This is what I'm referencing when I say disingenuous or forgot my other posts. The one that you quoted was a direct response to Ubik who had pointed out possible reasons why a potentially mafia you outs themselves on day one. I agreed with his points and expanded on a few. Those weren't the ONLY possible explanations of what was going on. Also, see my posts below from day one:

This is a long one, skip to the bottom section. "I don't full know how to feel about it, I guess I have more points in favour of him being ok based on this alone, but he did contradict himself a bit too which is concerning... If he doesn't die in the night then we question it in day two?"

Still considering options. It's not super direct where I say "if Cam is the doctor, Micky is mafia" or vice versa, but I have been giving explanations outside of you lying.

More questioning, and agreeing with Ubik's points.

I flat out said "I'll keep in mind that it is entirely possible that Cam was jailed."

So today I'm more focused on you because of the first post I linked to. You didn't die over night, that's weird. I am warming up to the idea that you were jailed. I don't like your first post in this phase claiming it, it feels like mafia running into the thread to throw up a defense before the questions start pouring in.

That's fair. I kind of rushed my lengthy posts before and didn't have time to review a lot of posts.

The things making me question if I was wrong and that you are the doctor are the following:

1. The possibility that you were jailed and Dissident told you as much. Nobody can confirm this except Dissident [and the jailer but PLEASE DON'T (unless you're mafia and want to give yourself up?! =D)], so it's kind of a non point to me, but it's in the back of my mind.

2. Lotha being the chosen kill instead of one of the two of us. The smartest mafia move last night was to keep us both around because clearly, we were going to have this back and forth right? They're sitting back and (again going under the assumption that you're actually the doctor) watching two townies fight until one of us is voted out, and we end up in a tie game in day three. They're completely safe because when the first of us comes up townie, the rest of the players vote the other and they come up townie, and mafia wins.

1. I'm sure it's clear but I'd like to reiterate that The Dissident confirmed that people are told if they're jailed which gives credibility to my story.

2. I think I made a valid point earlier about why Lotha was taken out. (Her possibly being Tyrion. I think her "I do know how it goes but I must say that sounds like a very Lannister-like way of thinking. *sips wine*" is a good hint towards that. (Now realizing that you may not have realized that if you haven't watched/read GoT)).

Inconquerable wrote:
zazthespaz wrote:Then, you jump to Andy's defense. I'm obviously suspicious of him so anyone supporting him gets the side eye from me. The fact that I've got a case against you separate from this raises my eyebrows further when paired with your defense of Andy.


Do you really think that I jump to Andy's defense if we're partners though? And to be fair, I've also defended Timo in this phase, and probably others along the way. I've outright said who my top townies are multiple times, I don't think I do this if I'm partnered with those people? That would be bad play.

Curious what your stance on this is now that Micky is accusing Timo of being Mafia with a bold claim. Also, is it a good idea to be defending a lot of people when there isn't much information about them to go on? Or are you trying to make alliances? :headscratch

Inconquerable wrote:IF there is a case to be made against Cam as the doctor… I think the best candidate for the actual doctor might be Lotha. See this:

”Where's this Easter egg I must see it.”

But more importantly…

THIS.

At first glance, this looks like a playful jab at Andy. If you read further into it, when is the last time you saw something really weird happen in a Mafia game, and Lotha reacts this calmly to it? Cam hints at his role and draws attention to the hints, and Andy outright outs Cam’s role. Lotha wouldn’t be this calm about it… unless she had to be because she didn’t want HER role revealed. If she had come into the thread and voted for Cam right off the bat, mafia would have known that she was the doctor.

Obviously I'm going to defend myself here so I know my point is weak, but I think the argument would be that she was highlighting semi-vague information so that she could observe how others reacted to it and if anyone else claimed the role. It doesn't make sense to jump down someone's throat on day 1 so she was taking it easy and seeing how it played out.

FFS while writing this 3 new (lengthy) posts have come up.

Ubik wrote:zaz is kind of level pegging with Inc for me. Him being town relies on him having made an error of judgement that put the town in jeopardy on day 1, potentially neutering him as doctor for the rest of the game, and that seems very unlike him.

"Error of Judgement" should be my TABN title. I've been here for 13 years, pretty sure I've made that clear about myself :lol

Given the bomb Micky just dropped and this solid piece of information
Micky wrote:I’m not mafia

Can we agree to go into a hiatus mode for the next 12 hours? Timo obviously has to respond to Micky's information, DAMMIT GLADYS ANOTHER POST?! Silver has yet to post in day 2 (I believe), Summer has been AFK due to a migraine, and I doubt Micky will be online tonight due to his party/celebrations. We've already dumped a bunch of information into this thread in one day, let's let those who I mentioned catch up, make their posts, and continue from there. Can we agree to that? If you have anything to respond to in my post above, go ahead and do so, but I might hold off on responding until tomorrow.

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Re: Like for real.

Postby Inconquerable » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:52 pm

Micky wrote:
Andy92 wrote:Tomorrow will be an important day because townies need to vote someone out to have even a chance at winning. We may swing and miss but it’s better than not swinging at all, waiting to die.

There’s 8 people left and we need 5 of us to get to a consensus decision. Since there’s 3 mafia out there then we need to be active in casting our votes in the same direction.

I’m going with my strongest gut feeling here and tossing my vote out. If anyone has a different idea they’d rather go for, feel free to persuade me, but we need to get people on the same page to have a chance.

DEADLINE VOTE: MICKY


Good luck wasting a vote

I investigated Timo and he’s guilty.


Ok, Micky time to work this out.

First, based on tone alone, I think I buy into this. This is right up town Micky's wheelhouse. Like if Micky is a cop and he's found a mafia, this is how I would expect him to out it. A little sarcastic, poking a bit at Andy. This is Micky. He also I think, and I say this with love, perceives pressure in the game a little more intensely than it actually is? Like I've watched him from the outside looking in vote for himself because a few people have said that he seems suspicious. He literally votes for himself at times even when the pressure isn't super mounting on him. So I could buy that he felt pressured to do this now, after a vote from Andy, as opposed to say later in the day tomorrow when there are more votes on him.

Second, so Ubik and I have spoken a bit about the last game and how role revealing probably cost town the game. What I've told him about certain roles is that if you investigate somebody bad in the night, don't just come out and say so in the thread, so as to compromise your role in the process (unless you're under pressure or whatever). Instead, go back and try to build a case on the person you found (which should be easy because you must have suspected them in the first place) and try to sway the thread. So looking back at Micky's case...

HERE...

This looks like a case built by somebody who found somebody guilty in the night, and has gone back to try to build a case and convince the thread. Timo even said as much himself HERE.

Now on the other hand, I do need to take into account that Micky was at the bottom of my list, and that Timo was at the top of my neutral list. After his post on the last page, I have bumped him down to... well that list is all sorts of messed up now. I'll update it shortly. But I'm trying to see all sides here. So I spoke about pressure earlier, there is a chance that this is mafia Micky starting to feel cornered by townies. I... don't know if I get that sense here necessarily because tonally it feels right, but maybe?

I think Timo's response will be telling. If he comes in tomorrow morning and counterclaims I'm going to lose it. =P
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Re: That's gotta be at least $11

Postby Ubik » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:55 pm

zazthespaz wrote:
Micky wrote:I investigated Timo and he’s guilty.

Holy crap.

Going back to his original post he actually kinda says it at the end, way to bury the lede :lol
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Re: Inconquerable talks too much.

Postby Inconquerable » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:06 pm

Ubik wrote:Inc started out feeling very town to me, she was being proactive and I like that a lot, pushing people into making commitments that can be tested as time goes on. I thought her strategy to look out for town players was smart. But there's been a few things that have knocked my confidence. The misquote of me was the first one, which seemed kind of petty but goes against my rule that if you're town, you don't mislead on things other people say. She did quickly recant which goes in her favour. The vote based on zaz claiming to be jailed also stuck out to me, because it was the kind of thing you note and ask for a clarification on, rather than use to accuse. I'd be very hesitant to vote for her despite putting her here, because if she's town she's a big asset that's pushing things on, and I've not seen enough to worry me that I'd risk losing that.


I mean the vote wasn't just based on him claiming to be jailed, and I think I laid that all out over multiple (lengthy) posts? Will review your whole post tomorrow afternoon, I'm kind of in favour of a break to let people catch up. I just want to answer Cam's last post and I'll be done.

zazthespaz wrote:
The things making me question if I was wrong and that you are the doctor are the following:

1. The possibility that you were jailed and Dissident told you as much. Nobody can confirm this except Dissident [and the jailer but PLEASE DON'T (unless you're mafia and want to give yourself up?! =D)], so it's kind of a non point to me, but it's in the back of my mind.

2. Lotha being the chosen kill instead of one of the two of us. The smartest mafia move last night was to keep us both around because clearly, we were going to have this back and forth right? They're sitting back and (again going under the assumption that you're actually the doctor) watching two townies fight until one of us is voted out, and we end up in a tie game in day three. They're completely safe because when the first of us comes up townie, the rest of the players vote the other and they come up townie, and mafia wins.

1. I'm sure it's clear but I'd like to reiterate that The Dissident confirmed that people are told if they're jailed which gives credibility to my story.

2. I think I made a valid point earlier about why Lotha was taken out. (Her possibly being Tyrion. I think her "I do know how it goes but I must say that sounds like a very Lannister-like way of thinking. *sips wine*" is a good hint towards that. (Now realizing that you may not have realized that if you haven't watched/read GoT)).


My answer to this is... yes. I was saying why I was wrong about you NOT being the doctor. Sorry my wording was definitely weird there.

Inconquerable wrote:
zazthespaz wrote:Then, you jump to Andy's defense. I'm obviously suspicious of him so anyone supporting him gets the side eye from me. The fact that I've got a case against you separate from this raises my eyebrows further when paired with your defense of Andy.


Do you really think that I jump to Andy's defense if we're partners though? And to be fair, I've also defended Timo in this phase, and probably others along the way. I've outright said who my top townies are multiple times, I don't think I do this if I'm partnered with those people? That would be bad play.

Curious what your stance on this is now that Micky is accusing Timo of being Mafia with a bold claim. Also, is it a good idea to be defending a lot of people when there isn't much information about them to go on? Or are you trying to make alliances? :headscratch


I kind of just look at it as defending my reads? Like if I've seen something that makes me think somebody is town, I'm going to point it out to see if people see it the same way. Don't know if that's the best thing to do, that's up for debate, but it's kind of the same as if I see something that makes me think somebody is mafia, I'm going to point it out. Um but yeah obviously defending mafia is never great, but that kind of happens in this game I feel? People make mistakes because they don't actually know who's who.

Inconquerable wrote:IF there is a case to be made against Cam as the doctor… I think the best candidate for the actual doctor might be Lotha. See this:

”Where's this Easter egg I must see it.”

But more importantly…

THIS.

At first glance, this looks like a playful jab at Andy. If you read further into it, when is the last time you saw something really weird happen in a Mafia game, and Lotha reacts this calmly to it? Cam hints at his role and draws attention to the hints, and Andy outright outs Cam’s role. Lotha wouldn’t be this calm about it… unless she had to be because she didn’t want HER role revealed. If she had come into the thread and voted for Cam right off the bat, mafia would have known that she was the doctor.

Obviously I'm going to defend myself here so I know my point is weak, but I think the argument would be that she was highlighting semi-vague information so that she could observe how others reacted to it and if anyone else claimed the role. It doesn't make sense to jump down someone's throat on day 1 so she was taking it easy and seeing how it played out.


Very possible! That's why I put if in capitals because I'm really not sure. I basically have to overhaul my entire reads list after today so I have no idea about anybody anymore. =P

FFS while writing this 3 new (lengthy) posts have come up.

Ubik wrote:zaz is kind of level pegging with Inc for me. Him being town relies on him having made an error of judgement that put the town in jeopardy on day 1, potentially neutering him as doctor for the rest of the game, and that seems very unlike him.

"Error of Judgement" should be my TABN title. I've been here for 13 years, pretty sure I've made that clear about myself :lol

Given the bomb Micky just dropped and this solid piece of information
Micky wrote:I’m not mafia

Can we agree to go into a hiatus mode for the next 12 hours? Timo obviously has to respond to Micky's information, DAMMIT GLADYS ANOTHER POST?! Silver has yet to post in day 2 (I believe), Summer has been AFK due to a migraine, and I doubt Micky will be online tonight due to his party/celebrations. We've already dumped a bunch of information into this thread in one day, let's let those who I mentioned catch up, make their posts, and continue from there. Can we agree to that? If you have anything to respond to in my post above, go ahead and do so, but I might hold off on responding until tomorrow.


Ok I'm done unless somebody wants me to answer something. We need a spoiler button to collapse these quote trains into.
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Re: That's gotta be at least $11

Postby Andy92 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:16 pm

Ubik wrote:
zazthespaz wrote:
Micky wrote:I investigated Timo and he’s guilty.

Holy crap.

Going back to his original post he actually kinda says it at the end, way to bury the lede :lol

Lol I noticed that too now. :lol

Inc, I’m not sure how to respond to all of that lol. I tend to play a little by general feelings / hunches, push a couple dominos and see what falls. See how effective that was after voting for Micky? :D

I’ll wait until Timo responds but unless if we get someone else claiming the cop role, I’ll switch my vote tomorrow.
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Re: This one's on the house.

Postby zazthespaz » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:20 pm

Ubik wrote:
zazthespaz wrote:
Micky wrote:I investigated Timo and he’s guilty.

Holy crap.

Going back to his original post he actually kinda says it at the end, way to bury the lede :lol

You posted twice in between that post and mine! :lol
I'm shutting up now

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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Timotheus » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:26 am

Well, this sucks. But at least I'll get some answers to some questions I've had for more than half of the game.

I'm the doctor. The reason why I was so confused with zaz is because I thought he was The Hound and he was trying to trick the mafia into killing him, hence killing them.

The further the game got, the more I struggled with the following two options:

1. zaz being mafia and trying to out the doc this way.
2. zaz being The Hound, and I didn't want to ruin his trap for the mafia.

I started to lean towards him being mafia, after he basically gave up, and never claimed he actually was the Hound.

Micky claiming he copped me is a lazy man's tactic. Reason didn't work? Sure, let's claim cop. Nice move though. Outing the doc and the cop on day two.

Micky's mafia. Zaz's reply will make things clear on whether he's mafia or the Hound.

I want to give a longer response, but you'll have to wait till I get off work, because I start in a few minutes. I'd say, ask me your questions, and I'll try to respond to them in detail in a few hours.
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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Micky » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:09 am

Timotheus wrote:Well, this sucks. But at least I'll get some answers to some questions I've had for more than half of the game.

I'm the doctor. The reason why I was so confused with zaz is because I thought he was The Hound and he was trying to trick the mafia into killing him, hence killing them.

The further the game got, the more I struggled with the following two options:

1. zaz being mafia and trying to out the doc this way.
2. zaz being The Hound, and I didn't want to ruin his trap for the mafia.

I started to lean towards him being mafia, after he basically gave up, and never claimed he actually was the Hound.

Micky claiming he copped me is a lazy man's tactic. Reason didn't work? Sure, let's claim cop. Nice move though. Outing the doc and the cop on day two.

Micky's mafia. Zaz's reply will make things clear on whether he's mafia or the Hound.

I want to give a longer response, but you'll have to wait till I get off work, because I start in a few minutes. I'd say, ask me your questions, and I'll try to respond to them in detail in a few hours.


Lazy? Okay.
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Thanks Andy!

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Re: You Win Or You Die - Game Of Thrones Mafia

Postby Timotheus » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:46 am

In the meantime I'm going to

PERMANENT VOTE: MICKY
DEADLINE VOTE: MICKY

He seems to be the best choice, even if zaz really turns out to be mafia.
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